U.S. truckload rates drive more freight to rail

U.S. intermodal market overview for July 2026

Intermodal freight demand continues to strengthen, with volumes consistently tracking above the five-year average. The first few weeks of June delivered approximately 10% year-over-year (y/y) growth, and early indicators suggest a robust second half of 2026 for intermodal.

Over-the-road spot market costs are rising significantly. As of July, C.H. Robinson forecasts a 34% y/y increase in spot truckload rates. The primary driver remains elevated cost per mile relative to earlier expectations. While earlier projections anticipated a peak summer cost per mile near $2.10, rates have risen to approximately $2.33 per mile.

Truckload carriers continue to face structural cost pressures, including maintenance, insurance, and driver wages, which are expected to remain elevated even as fuel prices stabilize. This environment is expanding the number of lanes where intermodal transportation represents a compelling alternative, contributing to tightening capacity across multiple markets.

2026 seasonal positioning

More broadly, intermodal adoption continues to expand across the United States. During the first half of 2026, shippers increasingly leveraged intermodal to offset rising truckload costs and improve network efficiency.

Stricter regulations on truck drivers, combined with elevated costs, are accelerating the shift toward intermodal nationwide. Markets experiencing notable increases in intermodal demand include:

• Atlanta
• Chicago
• Dallas
• Houston
• Jacksonville, Florida
• Los Angeles
• Toledo, Ohio

As of mid-June, several markets were identified as capacity-constrained and rail carriers began prioritizing container reservations for committed customers.

Shippers seeking committed contract rates out of Southern California should expect limited availability. New long-term agreements are unlikely to begin until late December 2026 or early January 2027, given current market constraints. In the near term, shippers moving freight out of California in July will face higher rates and limited capacity.

Intermodal spot pricing remains competitive

Despite competitive spot pricing, upward pressure is building, particularly in high utilization markets. However, truckload pricing continues to rise at a faster pace, widening the cost advantage of intermodal across many lanes.

Demand growth is most pronounced in the 550–1,500 mile range, where freight that previously shifted back to truckload during softer market conditions is returning to intermodal.

Fuel cost impact

The U.S. average diesel price has been over $5 per gallon, and while it dipped below that in late June, that’s still up significantly from roughly $3.54 per gallon at the same time last year. Fuel surcharges tied to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) index are adjusting accordingly. A key structural distinction remains critical:

• Intermodal fuel surcharges are typically percentage-based and tied to linehaul rates.
• Truckload fuel surcharges are generally calculated on a per-mile basis.

Applying truckload fuel structures to intermodal movements can unnecessarily inflate costs. Shippers that align fuel programs with intermodal methodologies are better positioned to preserve savings in a high-fuel-cost environment.

Committed intermodal pricing outlook

Committed intermodal pricing for 2026 varies by region. West Coast outbound rates are rising rapidly; new long-term agreements are unlikely unless they begin in December 2026 or later. Other regions see moderate increases of approximately 5–9%.

Key strategies for off-cycle bids

There has been a notable increase in off-cycle bidding. Many shippers, facing coverage challenges, are turning to mini-bids to secure capacity.

To improve outcomes, shippers should:

• Identify lanes where extended transit times are acceptable.
• Implement blended mode strategies to reduce network volatility.
• Evaluate total landed cost, rather than focusing solely on linehaul rates.
• Understand freight compatibility with rail, including any blocking and bracing requirements.

Service performance expectations

Class I railroads continue to deliver strong and consistent service performance, supported by:

• Fewer held trains
• Reliable train speeds
• Lower locomotive idle time
• Reduced terminal dwell times

Despite these efficiencies, overall network capacity is tightening. Container positioning is becoming increasingly critical as regional demand shifts and imbalances persist, particularly in Southern California.

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