Diesel prices ease, but fuel risk remains high

The announcement of a U.S.–Iran ceasefire agreement in mid-June introduced short-term stabilization in global oil markets and hopes of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for ships that carry a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas.

This translated into a noticeable softening in diesel prices in North America following the sharp run-up experienced in the months since the conflict began. The timing of the agreement was particularly important, coinciding with the peak of seasonal fuel demand, meaning even modest improvements in supply confidence can have an outsized impact on pricing direction.

But the agreement is temporary; only a few ships were able to transit the strait before more attacks; and key uncertainties persist around enforcement, mine clearance, and longer-term regional stability. As a result, diesel markets are likely to remain sensitive. Even in a de-escalation scenario, a full normalization of global oil flows would take time, which suggests diesel prices would trend downward more gradually rather than sharply.

For trucking markets, this creates a near-term easing of fuel costs but not a return to pre-conflict prices. Fuel is expected to remain a key variable influencing the cost of trucking for shippers, capacity, and carrier margin recovery through the summer months.

The national U.S. average diesel price per gallon of $5.02 in June was down from $5.60 in May. Despite the decrease in price on a month-over-month (m/m) basis, the average price is still remarkably higher than June 2025’s price per gallon of $3.60. This is the first m/m decrease since January 2026, when fuel was at $3.52.

U.S. average diesel price per gallon

The Mexico average diesel price per liter of fuel has come down in recent weeks, from over 28 pesos per liter to recently just under 27 pesos per liter. Fuel remains higher than the 26 pesos/liter that was experienced a year ago.

Mexico average diesel price per liter 

After peaking in April, the national average diesel price in Canada, shown here in Canadian cents per liter, has decreased in recent weeks.

Canada average diesel price per liter 

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