Global Freight Market Insights

Updated on September 21, 2023

The following information is built on market data from public sources and C.H. Robinson’s information advantage—based on our experience, data, and scale. Use these insights to stay informed, assist with decision making to potentially mitigate risk, and hopefully help avoid disruptions to your supply chain.

Examinations by U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP) can result in the detention or seizure of merchandise—stressful to be sure. Understanding CBP’s procedures and your obligations during each of these processes can help with recover the cargo or determine your company’s next steps if a violation has been found.

• Examination: CBP may examine all imported merchandise to determine admissibility, duty, and compliance with all customs and customs-enforced laws.
• Detention: Once an entry has been filed, CBP has five business days to issue a release, otherwise the merchandise is considered detained. It should be noted this only applies when other Partner Government Agencies (PGAs) do not possess regulatory authority over the goods. CBP can also issue a demand for the re-delivery of goods conditionally released if it is found those goods require examination.
  
  CBP will send written notice to the importer within five business days once the decision to detain has been made. The notice will state the reason for the detention; anticipated length; nature of any tests to be conducted; and what, if any, information can be supplied by the importer that may accelerate a favorable disposition. From the date of the notice, CBP has 30 days to release, exclude, or seize the goods.
• Seizure: CBP officers may seize merchandise when there is reasonable cause to believe any violation of a customs-enforced law has occurred. A notice will be issued by a Fines, Penalties, and Forfeitures Officer, identifying the cargo as seized and the legal basis for the seizure. An importer has 30 days from the mailing date of the notice to file a petition with CBP to challenge a seizure. CBP will either grant the petition and release the merchandise or deny the petition and retain the goods.
  
  In some cases, CBP may consider alternative resolutions, prior to, or in lieu of, seizure. For example, CBP may reject or deny entry or issue a monetary penalty that can be paid if the violation has been corrected.

• Understand your obligations and timelines: Take careful note of CBP’s detention and seizure timelines. They often come with deadlines to submit information. Costs associated with the examination, transportation, and storage of detained and seized goods can be significant.
• Communicate with your customs broker: Your customs broker can provide valuable guidance for complying with U.S. customs laws and the prevention of violations. Additionally, CBP typically provides electronic notices to customs brokers that are received much sooner than written notices sent to importers via mail.
• Consult with a trade attorney: Importers may file civil actions to petition or appeal a CBP decision. Particularly with seizures, it may be helpful to consult with a trade attorney to determine what options are available.

Smooth customs clearances don’t just happen—review these 20 steps for strategies you can implement now to avoid potential delays and rapidly streamline your customs processes. You can also compare several trade strategies by their deployment speed, cost to implement, and risk level. Find the ones that help you properly mitigate risk and streamline processes to better control costs.

C.H. Robinson customs brokerage and trade compliance teams are available to help guide you through numerous trade compliance matters—including tariff classification assistance and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) qualification, such as USMCA. Connect with a Trusted Advisor^® expert for more information.

As the end of third quarter approaches, there is a build-up to relatively modest peak season in the approaching fourth quarter this year compared to last year. This is driven mainly by ecommerce product demand for the upcoming holiday season—especially out of China and new technology product launches. 

Rates are picking up. This is impacted by continually elevated jet fuel prices, capacity tightening from flight cancellations, and increased demand for specific trade lanes that are impacted by seasonal demand.

Expect a slight rate increase as carriers implement winter schedules for October. Currently there are no disruptors expected for Q4—all airports, ports, and terminals in the region are operating smoothly. Capacity is widely available.

Repeated labor strikes continue to occur in the wake of President Macron’s plan to raise the pension age. Impacts have included delays, fewer flights, and increased air space congestion throughout Europe. 

With France hosting the Rugby World Cup from September 8 through October 28, anticipate logistical delays due to traffic and demand. In addition, Paris Metro workers have threatened to strike during this period, which would result in traffic jams in and around the city. 

While train drivers will receive a bonus in recognition of the additional services they must run during the event, station staff have not been offered additional pay. Members of the trade union FO-RATP, which represents public transport workers in Paris, have threatened to walk out over the issue. Negotiations are currently ongoing.

Capacity has increased +12% year over year (Y/Y) compared to last year and it continues to recover, matching pre-pandemic levels. This growth is driven by freighter and integrator capacity deployed in their networks.

Expect market conditions in Q4 to be similar to current market conditions, with ample capacity for current volume levels. Airlines will look for ways to adjust capacity to reduce pressure on rates.

Demand for crude oil remains stable, even as fuel surcharges are still going up. In Chile, carriers are preparing for the next cherry season.

Space is available on most southbound lanes (ex Miami) with a combination of both passenger and freighter capacity available. Demand continues to be slow, driven by global and regional economic outlook. Markets continue to adjust rates to the new supply and demand reality. Long-term rates are stable as the market has likely bottomed out.

Currently, there is ample capacity in all major trade lanes. This surplus is a result of reduced demand, prompting carriers to offer competitive spot pricing options. Despite these fluctuations, contract rates have maintained their stability with minimal to no adjustments. Moreover, the ongoing low season for perishable goods across the region has contributed to this. 

Consequently, the demand for northbound cargo remains lowered due to perishables being in their seasonal low. Conversely, southbound capacity originating from Miami is widely accessible for most markets. This situation has also led to the availability of aggressive spot pricing on the majority of lanes, which provides potential benefits for businesses engaged in shipping and trade.

The U.S. export market remains stable and should remain so as the fourth quarter approaches. While you can expect capacity to decrease as the summer travel season comes to a close, the impact will likely be limited as a result of low overall demand.

Spot market rates are trending up from Asia to the United States in August and September. Freighter operators continue to reduce flight schedules while demand is generally stable, resulting in the rate increases. 

Do not expect demand to significantly increase in the short term. From Europe to the United States, demand and rates remain relatively stable, though the upcoming capacity reductions driven by lower travel demand could result in slightly increased spot market rates.

Capacity to Oceania continues to grow, however there are some capacity restraints due to Northern summer season travelers and additional fuel loads required—particularly from North America on direct flights. Softening of these restrictions and further additional capacity are expected as Q4 approaches.

There are fewer restrictions from both Europe and Asia to and from Oceania and ample support for cargo demand. 

The export market is softer overall to most destinations. With capacity exceeding demand, spot rates are lower for the month of September.

The air freight market has been showing signs of improved cargo throughput since the beginning of August. The rates, which had gradually fallen for many months, have stabilized. There is increased activity on the air export side, especially from west and south India, mainly due to the pharma sector.

The increased demand in the passenger sector is creating an increase in the lower deck capacity. The volumes are showing almost equal numbers and growth for both air import and air export. The spot rates are strong and might soon trend upward.

Ocean freight demand on most trade lanes has not meaningfully increased in September. In parallel, Alphaliner reports that January through July 2023 saw deliveries of new vessels of 1.2 million TEUs entering the global fleet, with less than 80,000 TEUs capacity removal through vessel scrapping. Another 1.2 million TEUs are expected to be added by the end of the year. To put this into perspective, the previous single-year record for annual growth was about 1.7 million TEUs in 2015.

Overall vessel capacity continues to trend higher than demand, keeping rates from long-lasting or significant increases. As such, the steamship lines will continue voiding sailings and slow steaming. This allows them to allocate more vessel/capacity per service and save on bunker costs. They are also suspending full services (such as the PS5 on the Trans-Pacific) or cutting down service size drastically (such as the TA2 on the Trans-Atlantic).

This lack of stability in schedules and transit times is a challenge that will likely continue for months to come. With a provider like C.H. Robinson, such challenges may turn into an opportunity to improve your supply chain management strategy, instead of impacting it negatively.

Source: © Alphaliner

The sharp fall in revenue for the steamship lines is a testament of the challenges they are facing globally.

Transpacific rates rebounded slightly following the September 1, 2023, general rate increase (GRI). However, carriers started to offer rate discounts and removed peak season surcharges before the Golden Week holidays in October. 

As demand starts to normalize, freight rates are predicted to fall through the rest of the month. Rates to the U.S. East Coast (USEC) and Pacific Northwest (PNW) have started to slip due to excess supply on these two routes, while rates to the Pacific Southwest (PSW) are more stable as demand and supply on this route is more balanced.

New ship deliveries and carriers cutting rates into September, are both affecting Asia–Europe rates, and the outlook is turning increasingly negative with pressure from the supply side. 

Though rates rebounded slightly in other trade lanes like Asia to Oceania, India, and Middle East, with the September 1, 2023, rate increase, it seems Asia to Oceania is the only lane with a positive outlook and sustainable rate increases expected until the end of September.

Expect rate levels to flatten with some slight decreases possible over the next several weeks. The number of days delayed is decreasing month over month and is currently at an average of 1–2 days for most U.S. ports/terminals.

There are no GRI’s anticipated, no issues with capacity, and carriers’ schedule reliability is improving month over month.

The Panama Canal expects to maintain restrictions on daily vessel transit and maximum draft for at least 10 more months. The extension of this restriction would give the canal room for preserving water before the next rainy season arrives, but it could also create a larger bottleneck of vessels. Importantly, container vessels have appointments for transiting the canal and these appointments take priority over other vessels, so don’t anticipate a major impact on ocean exports at this point.

Per the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) advisory, further limitation is implemented on Panamax locks, connecting those mostly used to connect the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), from 34–36 vessels a day down to 22, which is for around 5,000–6,000 TEUs vessels travelling through. USEC vessels through Neopanamax locks are less impacted with restrictions changing from 9–11 vessels per day down to 10. Recent rains have kept the situation stable, although they did not lead to draft increase.

Carriers are implementing more slow steaming strategies,  impacting transit times and disrupting schedules. They are looking to achieve three outcomes:

1. Address over-capacity by adding more vessels to service strings and avoid parking vessels
2. Save on fuel costs
3. Comply with IMO 2023 regulations for older, non-compliant vessels, which is impacting transit times and disrupting schedules

Wildfires in Canada are still presenting many challenges. C.H. Robinson continues to monitor these situations and provide updates as they become available. Subscribe to our Client Advisories to stay up to date on the latest information.

Ocean carriers shifted vessel capacity from U.S. West Coast (USWC) to USEC ports due to port congestion earlier in 2022 coupled with concerns over the ILWU negotiations at USWC ports. Now that the ILWU and Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) have reached an agreement, analysts are monitoring the extent with which vessel capacity returns to USWC ports, as some data suggests that only a percentage of the traffic will return to USWC ports.

Congestion at transshipment ports in Asia remains an issue. Shipments can be delayed as much as 10–14 days at many major transshipment ports, such as Busan and Singapore. Delays at transshipment ports are leading carriers to push for business on direct services only. Congestion is expected to ease in the coming months as volumes on the Asia trades continue to decline.

Barge companies in South China will be suspending their operations to Pearl River Delta (PRD) ports for approximately 11 days from September 28 through October 8 due to the Autumn Festival holiday. During this period, shipments to PRD ports will need to be terminated at China direct ports of call like Hong Kong and Yantian. The barge suspension schedule is listed below:

Vessel capacity in this lane increased significantly (ex USEC ports in early 2023). With demand having dropped off significantly, particularly in the Transatlantic Westbound (TAWB) lane, expect carriers to cut capacity and blank sailings to prevent further rate erosion. As an example, the 2M Alliance Maersk and MSC have already advised will assign smaller vessels on the Trans-Atlantic lane, which will reduce capacity on their services by as much as 40%.

Space is still tight (ex USWC to Europe) due to lack of sailing options, and carriers are substantially booked on all water services (ex Los Angeles and Oakland). 

Currently, there are low water levels in the European river system. These levels are affecting barge transports due to draft restrictions. A pass-through charge may be put into place for all import and export cargo.

The EU will be implementing a carbon tax system called the Emissions Trading System (ETS) that will apply to the shipping industry effective January 2024. Ocean carriers are advising that ETS will significantly increase their costs, which will be passed on to cargo owners. Analysts warn that ETS could also cause ocean carriers to adjust their shipping schedules into and out of Europe, which could significantly disrupt European supply chains.

Space is improving to East Coast South America (ECSA) ports, especially from USEC and USGC ports. Carriers are also significantly improving their vessel space capacity offerings (ex USWC ports to ECSA and West Coast South America (WCSA) ports). 

Direct carrier service is available both from the USEC and USWC ports, however, peak season is approaching so space will tighten. Recommend booking 3–4 weeks in advance.

Transshipment options to Oceania have improved and there is now more space capacity available.

The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) fumigation season will be in effect once again for all vessels departing from the United States effective September 1, 2023, through May 2024.

Space is improving in this lane, especially with several carriers announcing they are re-opening space and service into this market. Expect this trend to continue through Q3 2023.

Space is most readily available (ex USEC ports) where there are more direct services. Among USEC ports, space is more available (ex New York and Norfolk ports). 

Space (ex USGC ports) continues to be very tight but has improved slightly.

The Trans-Tasman market has softened. Space and equipment availability is open. Rates are dropping with the introduction of new options on this trade lane. 

Direct carrier space is improving (ex USEC and USWC) while transshipment service options are widely available. Rates are softening due to improving space availability. Peak season on this trade lane begins in late August/early September so space may tighten. 

The Europe to Oceania market remains stable, with space and equipment readily available for dry cargo. Rates are still gradually being reduced by all carriers as supply continues to outweigh demand. 

Northeast Asia demand continues to tighten as carriers continue to blank sail/port omit, while demand remains steady from Southeast Asia to Oceania. Expect GRIs to be implemented from Northeast Asia to Australia, Australian East Coast ports, and New Zealand. 

Export rates are under pressure. Waste paper, grain, wool, and cotton/cotton seed are still moving in large numbers with load factors strong for the next several weeks, but it is coming up against constant competition/rate pressure. For Melbourne and Adelaide, 20' containers are hard to forecast as solid grain season is currently in effect. Feeder space to India is tight across most carriers, with small allocations against demand from Singapore.

The export and import markets into SAMA are relatively open for all trade lanes with few exceptions. Customers express they have better orders compared to the first half of 2023. The automotive, healthcare, retail, textile, and manufacturing industries are particularly upbeat, and intend to end with a good fourth quarter. 

India continues to be an increasingly important investment destination for a wide range of multinationals in many sectors, including manufacturing, infrastructure, garments and textiles, automotive, healthcare, and aerospace and its ancillary industries.

Expect this lane to be generally stable with a few fluctuations caused by void sailings and capacity constraints. Market intelligence indicates there are a number of blank sailings being scheduled, which could be an indication carriers are trying to use a demand-supply gap to stabilize their rate level for North America. A number of RRI/GRI/PSS have been declared by carriers.

Average short-term contract rates from Asia–Europe/Mediterranean are showing a bit of a rate hike. Space is open for all lanes to Europe/Mediterranean as demand continues to be weak.

The market is volatile as carriers are trying to reduce capacity by inducing blank sailings, forecasting the readiness of standard cargo is the preferred approach.

The market remains volatile with a slight increase. Several carriers are offering alternative services from Asia to ECSA to maximize their mother-vessel utilizations. Expect September to be strong for this trade lane.

The domestic transportation market continues to be stable. Domestic demand has also been negatively affected to some extent by a decrease in international orders. Due to the decline in overall demand, trucking capacity is still in a surplus state and asset-heavy transport fleets are under pressure to feed drivers and vehicles.

Freight rates are still at a relatively low level and with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the third quarter, expect there will be a brief rebound in the transportation market. Transit time in the Pingxiang port from China to Southeast Asia now is extended to 1–2 days as the cross-border trucking demand is slightly up compared to the entire China-Southeast Asia trucking market. Meanwhile, there is a congestion situation of 1–2 days for import trucking from Southeast Asia to China with the increase of imported fruits, which is expected to last until mid-October.

Retail diesel prices continue their trend upwards. Diesel prices have outpaced the crude oil process and while base rates have stabilized, there is every indication that fuel percentages will continue their increases as summer ends.

In June, it was announced that Norfolk Southern ramps were going to a stack only system, but due to challenges with rollouts for the Memphis and Rossville ramps, the railroad has been forced to push the rollout at the Atlanta rail to October.

The new procedures will require drivers to make an appointment in a new system with a finite number of appointments each day. This may result in more accessorials and less same-day flexibility.

September 10, 2023, marked the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season as severe weather continues to threaten supply chains. Stay up to date by subscribing to our Client Advisories for the latest updates.

NY/NJ
Overall volumes are down with trends of reduced Trans-Atlantic movement inbound to the USEC. Capacity is available in local markets with long-haul pricing up over last month. 

Cleveland 
Expect challenges at both Norfolk Southern and CSX where containers are being grounded, adding to wait times, delays, and additional fees.

Columbus
Carriers still advise of chassis shortages. These issues are more severe for export freight. Despite these challenges, carriers also advise that wait times are easing. 

Minneapolis
Capacity is open and chassis are becoming more available. Carriers are simply at the mercy of the efficiency of the ramps.

Drivers report that the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is doing a lot of road checks on DCLI equipment outside the CP terminal and minor delays are expected. Additionally, an influx of volumes in this market is causing the BN to ground containers. 

St. Louis
Capacity is open and rail operations are stable. Chassis dwell and availability is much better (40’ dwell is under 13 days with 17%+ availability).

LA/LB
The ILWU and Port of Long Beach came to a six-year agreement that will expire on July 1, 2028. Wait times at Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals have leveled off and average waiting time is reported at 2.5 hours.

Australian port logistics and landside container transport services are currently operating at levels within capacity. There are no reports of service issues at any of the major ports nationally.

National empty parks have given notice of pricing increases through September, review the latest Wharf Ancillary Charges Client Advisory for more information.

Rates are expected to firm up in the second half of 2023, partially due to the festival season in Q4. The trucking industry is booming, with key developments such as improved communications, increased supply and demand, and greater use of technology.

The over the road logistics market in India is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8% over the next three years to reach $330 billion by 2025.

Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) seasonal measures are now in place. Measures will apply to targeted goods manufactured in or delivered from target risk countries that have been delivered between September 1, 2023, until April 30, 2024, (inclusive) and to vessels that berth, load, or transship from target risk countries within the same period.

Read our latest blog to learn more about the impact this pest could have on Australia and New Zealand agriculture or visit our BMSB page for in-depth regulatory information.

Visit our Trade & Tariff Insights page for the latest news, insights, perspectives, and resources from our customs and trade policy experts.