Global Freight Market Insights

Impact your business with timely information on global freight trends that could affect capacity availability, pricing, and more. Create and download custom reports by adding your preferred ocean and air trade lanes—then, check back monthly for updates.

Updated on January 19, 2023

The following information is built on market data from public sources and C.H. Robinson’s information advantage—based on our experience, data, and scale. Use these insights to stay informed, assist with decision making to potentially mitigate risk, and hopefully help avoid disruptions to your supply chain.

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Global Market Overview

3 Key Global Shipping Strategies for 2023
Container ship at port ready for ocean freight sailing 

Mike Short, President of Global Forwarding, C.H. Robinson

For the past year and a half, many shippers suddenly found themselves fighting for space on the water and in the air. And now, almost as quickly as the fight for capacity began, the market shifted again. Today, depending on the region, shippers are facing new and ongoing challenges to navigate, such as inland congestion, geo-political changes, overflowing warehouses, port delays, blank sailings, and more.

As supply chains continue to become more complex, I wanted to share three best practices to help optimize your global shipping strategies for the new year.

First, keep in mind that not all lanes and markets are created equal. While demand for capacity has lessened in the majority of global trade lanes over the past few months, that’s not the case for all markets. For example, the U.S. export market actually saw an increase in demand for shipments, experiencing a mini-peak this past fall. Additionally, certain lanes to/from Oceania did not experience the same drastic demand softening as other large regions, like Asia, so availability and rates were much different.

So, why does this matter for planning? Because a healthy global supply chain strategy is diversified across modes and lanes, with a mix of contractual and spot pricing for the nuances and unique market conditions of each region. Even with more open capacity on many trade lanes, continue to strive for a 4–6-weeks lead time for ocean shipping, and give notice as soon as possible for air freight. Zero congestion in one area of the supply chain doesn’t mean you won’t face it in another.

Rely on these monthly market insights and expertise from your C.H. Robinson supply chain partner to stay up-to-date on the nuances of each region, mode, and trade lane.

Reducing costs will be a top priority. According to a 2022 survey of large shippers, 62% said the pressure to reduce supply chain costs is a top pain point, and we don’t see that changing in 2023.

There are variety of strategies to consider for your business, some easier to implement than others. Even if you don’t have the ability to do a major overhaul of your strategy, sometimes simple changes to your strategy can result in big savings.

For example, cargo consolidation is an easy place to start to obtain better rates and cargo security. Or new technology tools like this duty refund tool that helps cut out the manual work to find savings on U.S. imports. Other tactics, such as effectively using Incoterms®, utilizing PO management, and leveraging your transportation providers business intelligence reporting may take longer to implement, but the end goal will be worth it.

The list above is just a start. To dive deeper, review these 10 actions you can take in your 2023 planning.

Finally, pay attention to the economic indicators. These past couple of years might have felt like a whirlwind. Your main goal was to keep your head above water, manufacturing running, or shelves stocked. Now that you can catch your breath, it’s time to refocus on forecasting. Managing inventory based on the economic indicators and locating those inventories closer to the end user is going to be paramount, especially in an increasingly complex logistics environment. If you’re not sure where to start, the right technology and data can help you identify the economic impacts, inventory to sales ratios, and more.

While there are great supply chain strategies available, there is not a one-size-fits-all answer in logistics. Your business’s supply chain is unique, and it requires equally unique strategies. While I’ve outlined a few high-level areas you should consider, the best thing to do is meet with your supply chain partner to identify the right strategies and opportunities based on your business goals.

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Air Freight Update

Asia

There are no signs of a significant pre-Chinese New Year demand increase. Key manufacturing sites expected to shut down in mid-January and resume production in early February. Rates remain stable with no capacity issues outside the usual flight cancellations during the Chinese New Year holiday period. Passenger travel restrictions have largely been lifted and passenger demand should gradually increase in the coming months, leading to new passenger flights and capacity. The South China/Hong Kong border crossing restrictions are greatly reduced, and cargo is flowing without issue.

Europe

Eurocontrol, Europe’s air traffic manager, anticipates that challenges meeting capacity demand and managing delays could make 2023 a very challenging year as air travel recovers to normal levels.

Several airline organizations criticized the recommendation of EU member states to require passengers arriving from China to have negative COVID-19 tests.

Oceania

Capacity continues to be added to the market with further rate reductions expected to continue. As is typical for this extended holiday season (including Christmas, New Year’s, and summer breaks, collectively), some freighter rotations are removed for maintenance. However, with the softer demand, spot rates are more available.


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Ocean Freight Update

Global

Demand for ocean freight in most trades continues to decrease or remain flat, with shipping rates following the same pattern.

Traditionally, volumes and rates increase ahead of the Chinese New Year as market demand increases, particularly for spring commodities. However, this year, market demand remains uncharacteristically soft, with no significant volume or rate increases for trades in and out of Asia. As such, the typical frontloading effect is not expected to happen this year.

In an attempt to slow or prevent rate decreases, steamship lines will continue to rationalize services and use blank sailing to adapt capacity to demand. Global schedule reliability finally reached 50%, with room for improvement to reach the more typical 70–90%.

Global schedule reliability
Line graph depicting global ocean freight schedule reliability

Source: © Sea—Intelligence

Asia

Carriers continue to remove trade capacity with blank sailings. Capacity utilization across the key trade lanes remains varied, with Asia-Europe standing out as full (due to capacity removal), while the rest of the trade remains open. Further rate reductions are expected after the Chinese New Year, as several shippers delay contract negotiations until after the holidays. Expect increased blank sailings during the holidays. In addition, some shippers are closed and will stay closed longer.

Export space availability is improving to North Asia ports, in particular China and Japan, especially with respect to direct export services from U.S. West Coast (USWC) ports. However, due to expected lower demand on the transpacific eastbound trade, vessel capacity may be cut up to 50% on this trade after the Chinese New Year.

Congestion at transshipment ports in Asia remains significant, with 10–14-day shipment delays at most major transshipment ports, including Busan, Kaohsiung, and Singapore. Busan congestion has been more significant due to the 10-day trucker strike in December 2022. Congestion at China ports also increased due to COVID-19 outbreaks reducing the port labor pool. All the delays and congestion at transshipment ports are leading carriers to push for business on direct services only. Congestion is expected to ease in the coming months as volumes on the Asia trades continue to decline.

Europe

Congestion at Europe ports is easing as volumes start to fall due to reduced consumer demand. This drop in volume should improve port fluidity over the course of Q1 2023. There may be more blank sailings on these trades if the fall in demand increases.

North America

Imports remain soft year-over-year due to inflation and normalizing demand from the largest importers, including retail, furniture, electronics, and home improvement, representing over 50% of U.S. imports.

U.S. congestion improved at ports and rails, though some locations— including Houston and Savannah ports, as well as Omaha and Santa Teresa rails—continue to struggle.

On the USWC, congestion at the Los Angeles/Long Beach port is improving with less than 10 vessels on average waiting outside to berth. The current congestion level is expected to remain stable.

U.S. container imports from main Southeast Asia origins vs. China (2008–2022)

Graph showing U.S. container imports from main Southeast Asia origins vs. China from 2008–2022

Source: Linerlytica

Latin America

Exports demand remains steady. Schedule reliability, limited carrier options, and blank sailings keep supply and demand fairly balanced to most destinations, with exports to Europe and Oceania remaining the most challenging.

South Asia, Middle East, and Africa

Overall demand for exports out of this region is stable, but softer compared to the past two years. There is more capacity than demand, and space is generally available with stable or decreasing rates.

Space to the India subcontinent (ISC) and Middle East markets is very tight across all U.S. ports, but most readily available for U.S. East Coast (USEC) port exports, where there are more direct services. Among USEC ports, space is more available for New York and Norfolk. Severe congestion at Bangladesh ports continues. Many carriers have either suspended or severely limited available space to this destination. Ocean carriers are applying congestion surcharges at Chittagong/Chattogram port that must be paid at origin.

Space continues to be very short to meet U.S. export demand to ISC and Middle East locations. It is very important to book four-to-five weeks in advance on this trade. However, several carriers announced they are re-opening space and service into this market, so space availability should greatly improve throughout  Q1 2023.

Oceania

The Trans-Tasman market softened over the holiday period. With customers reopening in mid-January, this should pick up . The new shuttle service out of Sydney and Brisbane has added tonnage to the lane, while the Focus Container Line to the Trans-Tasman service introduction has increased options. Rates are expected to remain stable through Q1 2023.

U.S. to Oceania

The market is likely to further weaken, and rates will continue to slowly decline as carriers compete for market share. However, the demand for refrigerated containers  remains strong. Space is tight but is starting to ease on the USWC. Some steamship lines reduced their capacity on certain services in December, causing tighter space on exports from the USEC. The traditional peak season on the U.S.-Oceania trade is expected to wind down by the end of February, easing space issues.

Port calls to New Zealand for exports from the USWC continue on a two-week basis, and transshipment service options are increasing.

Europe

The Europe export market remains stable, with space and equipment readily available for dry cargo.

Asia

Northeast Asia to Oceania continues to be in flux. Carriers are attempting to increase rates, but demand is not at a level to sustain increases. The period after the Chinese New Year will likely be the next indicator as to whether carriers attempt more increases or resort to blank sailing programs.

Southeast Asia is in steady decline as demand weakens. Carriers are now looking at amending services, such as rationalizing port calls, to limit space and increase demand.

There are currently no reports of congestion in Singapore and Malaysia, with feedback from the lines reporting operations are normal and without major delays.

Inland Drayage Update

Asia

With COVID-19 restrictions being lifted across China, the number of infected people rose rapidly and led to labor shortages and closures of some logistics parks at the end of December. The less-than-truckload market will shut down during the Chinese New Year. Customs clearance between Shenzhen and China is speeding up for imports and exports. Congestion time in the Pingxiang port from China to Southeast Asia is 2–3 days, and customs will be closed for the new year holiday.   

North America

The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference ratified a new collective agreement before the previous agreement ended. The agreement covers approximately 160 rail traffic controllers in Canada. It went into effect on January 1, 2023, and will expire December 31, 2025.

Carriers in the Charleston market face challenges with finding open parking for their trucks. While volumes have remained steady and the port terminals themselves are clear, the congestion moved to the areas surrounding the terminals. Local capacity could potentially move away from this market as drivers become more frustrated with the added cost and lack of space.

In Savannah, dwell times continue to improve, especially for larger Class II vessels for which average wait times decreased on average from seven days to four.

Partly due to the removal of the port congestion surcharge as of January 1, 2023, volumes reduced in the Northeast. Port wait times in this region now are only expected occasionally rather than on every shipment. Refrigerated cargo can still be a struggle with the low equipment supply, but standard cargo should see minimal issues.

In Memphis, the average dwell time has improved to 2–3 days. Chassis shortages remain. Pool chassis utilization of 40-foot containers is at about 93%. In Nashville, chassis utilization is at about 98%.

Customs Update

North America
2023 PMS Dates

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) published the Periodic Monthly Statement (PMS) dates for 2023. PMS is a free program offered by CBP that allows importers to pay their duties, taxes, and fees directly to the government. There are numerous benefits to being set up on PMS. Connect with your local C.H. Robinson Trusted Advisor® experts to learn more.

Chart showing PMS dates for 2023

Section 301 China Tariffs

The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) extended 81 of the Section 301 China Tariff exclusions for COVID-19 products that were due to expire November 30, 2022, and 352 product exclusions that were due to expire on December 31, 2022.

The USTR is seeking public comments from the trade community on the effectiveness of the Section 301 China Tariffs. If your organization is interested in commenting, submit comments by the January 17, 2023 deadline. The USTR released the docket questions for submitters to review. 

Alcohol imports

Effective January 1, 2023, importers will be required to pay full tax to CBP for imported alcohol. The new Craft Beverage Modernization Act (CBMA) provisions are detailed in a video that the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) recently provided.

New custom requirements for Uyghur region

On March 18, 2023, CBP plans to deploy a new Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Region Alert capability in which validations must be performed when the Country of Origin is China for Entry and for Manufacturer Identification Code (MID) creation, as follows:

  • Postal code will be a required field.
  • Users will receive an error message if the postal code provided is not a valid Chinese postal code. 
  • Users will receive a warning message when a Uyghur region postal code has been provided.
  • Ability to update an existing MID with a postal code.

Proactively prepare for these emerging customs and trade developments by staying informed—subscribe to our Trade & Tariff Insights today.

Free Trade Agreements: India and the United Kingdom

The Australia-India Economic and Trade Agreement (AI-ECTA) went into effect on December 29, 2022, and will deliver new market opportunities for Australian businesses and consumers.

The Australia-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement (A-UKFTA) is not yet in effect, and will begin 30 days (or another mutually agreed time) after the respective parties have confirmed in writing that all domestic requirements are complete.

Further details can be found on the Australian Government Free Trade Portal for the AI-ECTA and A-UKFTA.

Biosecurity Cost Recovery Changes

The Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) issued a notice regarding changes to biosecurity cost recovery in order to manage the risk of hitchhiker pests and diseases. The cost recovery will apply to customs brokers and importers of consignments over $1,000 (AUD) imported as sea cargo, with the Full Import Declaration charge for sea cargo (Sea FID) for each declared consignment, increasing from $49 (AUD) to $58 (AUD). The changes went into effect January 16, 2023. The full notice can be found on the DAFF website. 

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Trade lane updates

Use these insights to forecast how capacity changes and trends impact your business. Create customized, shareable reports by adding your preferred trade lanes. Check back each month for the latest updates in the lanes you care about. Updated ocean and air freight market insights will be available the third Thursday of each month.

Market status key:
Stable
Strained
Critical

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Trade lane FAQs

Q: What are C.H. Robinson's definitions of ‘stable,’ ‘strained,’ and ‘critical’?

Stable: Green – Relatively open capacity and low spot market rates
Strained: Yellow – Capacity is tight and mid-level spot market rates
Critical: Red – Backlog of capacity and high spot market rates

Q: What do the terms and acronyms commonly used in market updates mean?

  • Blank sailings – Blank sailings occur when a carrier has removed a vessel rotation from a given service string. This results in one week where there is no vessel sailing offered at the ports called on that particular service string.

  • CY – Container Yard. A location where containers are stored temporarily during transit. It can be a port terminal, rail terminal, or trucker’s yard.

  • Extra loader – An extra loader is a vessel that an ocean carrier has added to a service string to increase capacity in the short term. This vessel would not be part of the standard vessel rotation on that service string. It would be removed as soon as it is no longer required to meet excess demand.

  • FEU – Forty Foot Equivalent Unit. The forty foot represents a 40′ container.

  • GRI – General Rate Increase. This is one of the mechanisms ocean carriers can use to increase rates for ocean transport on a particular trade.

  • IPI – Interior Point Intermodal. Also known as rail ramps, these are inland points to/from which carriers can offer service on a through bill of lading.

  • PSS – Peak Season Surcharge. This surcharge is typically applied by ocean carriers during the peak shipping period on a given trade lane, where vessel space is either fully utilized or overbooked.

  • Roll/roll pools – A “roll“ happens when a container booked on a given sailing/vessel is transferred by the steamship line to the following vessel serving the requested lane. A “roll pool” is created when a steamship line plans for a large number of containers to roll from one vessel to another.

  • SSL – Steamship line or ocean carrier

  • Steamship line alliance – Alliances occur when a group of steamship lines share vessel space on their service strings and manage services in agreement with each other. There are currently three steamship line alliances on the main east-west trades: the Ocean Alliance, 2M Alliance, and The Alliance.

  • TEU – Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit. The twenty foot represents a 20′ container.

  • Transshipment – This service offered transports cargo in two legs on two different vessels. The first vessel brings the container from the port of origin to the port of transshipment. The second vessel brings the container from the port of transshipment to the final destination port.

  • VSA – Vessel Sharing Agreement. This is an agreement between steamship lines to share slots (space) on a service string or vessel.

Market insight videos

Watch these short videos to gain a better understanding of the market dynamics affecting global supply chains and the movement of goods around the globe.

Wheeled v. grounded U.S. inland terminals

Wheeled v. grounded U.S. inland terminals

Explore the difference between wheeled and grounded U.S. inland terminals with Jenna Kuehn, Director of Global Forwarding Inland at C.H. Robinson.

The chassis shortage

The chassis shortage

Learn about the dynamics behind equipment shortages in the U.S. inland market with Jenna Kuehn, Director of Global Forwarding Inland at C.H. Robinson.

Watch Oceania’s airfreight market forecast

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