Global Freight Market Insights

Impact your business with timely information on global freight trends that could affect capacity availability, pricing, and more. Create and download custom reports by adding your preferred ocean and air trade lanes—then, check back monthly for updates.

Updated on April 21, 2022

The following information is built on market data from public sources and C.H. Robinson’s information advantage—based on our experience, data, and scale. Use these insights to stay informed, assist with decision making to potentially mitigate risk, and hopefully help avoid disruptions to your supply chain.

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Global Market Overview

Weather conditions and disruptions in your supply chain

Supply chain disruptions caused by hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and other increasingly extreme weather threaten an already distressed supply chain. While future increases in sea level may feel potentially unpredictable, ripple effects of intensifying climate-related disturbances are already affecting the global economy.

  • Water levels on the Rhine River in April 2021 forced cargo ships to reduce their cargo capacity to avoid running aground.
  • Typhoons in Southeast Asia caused severe flooding in December 2021, wreaking havoc on the semi-conductor supply chain.

With forecasts predicting an active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) attributes the anticipated increase to several factors:

  • Reduced El Nino pattern within the Pacific
  • Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea
  • Weaker tropical trade winds
  • Enhanced west African monsoon season
satellite view of hurricane system 

Source: © NOAA

One of the most visible consequences of climate change is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events around the globe:

  • At the start of April, there have been 445 reports of tornadoes in the United States and major late winter storms moving eastward across the continent, bringing blizzard-like conditions, and impacting roads.
  • Wildfire hotspots in India are likely given excessive heatwaves across two-thirds of the country.
  • It may have been a below-average start to typhoon season in the West Pacific, however two active named storms are moving over the Philippine Sea. Tropical storm Megi made landfall April 10, 2022, in the Philippines, leaving a path of destruction.

What to consider in preparation for disruptive weather conditions:

  • Be proactive and prepare for the unexpected
  • Order over, and above, expected quantities
  • Ensure a larger-on-hand supply to handle increases in demand
  • Redirect inventory as necessary
  • Cross-dock or deliver goods for direct store delivery (DSD)
  • Accurate forecasting and smart planning

Earth Day is April 22, 2022. To learn more about this year’s theme, Invest in Our Planet, and find events, activities, and what you can do to make a difference, visit Earth Day: The official site.

Speak with your C.H. Robinson representative today to understand what weather-related risks may impact your supply chain in the months ahead and sign up for Client Advisories to stay informed.

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Air Freight Update

Global

Fuel costs have skyrocketed because of continued uncertainty over sanctions against Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter. While prices remain high, there have been a consistent decline since late March. The downward trend has been primarily caused by nations releasing reserves to increase oil supply.

Air freight capacity

graphic showing 10% drop in air capacity 
  • Passenger demand is increasing
  • Local travel restrictions will play a key role in capacity growth
  • Russia/Ukraine conflict will impact capacity
  • Markets with stricter policies are unlikely to increase capacity

Asia

Passenger and cargo airlines have cancelled many flights in and out of Shanghai Pudong airport. Increased infections and travel restrictions have been implemented in Guangzhou, China as well, which will drive air rates even higher. Disruptions to electronics and automotive supply chains will be acute.

Europe

Capacity in Europe has been challenged by the ban on Russian airlines. Spot market rates continue to climb as demand remains strong. Large shipments may require advanced bookings, at least 10-days prior, to secure capacity.

South America

Challenges in the ocean market are driving significant conversion to air freight on northbound lanes. Spot pricing has increased considerably. For more urgent cargo, express service is the more reliable option. Forecasting is key to mitigate cost increases and transit delays.

Southbound capacity from Miami is available to major markets as additional capacity has been generated by the northbound demand.

South Asia

The market in India has tightened as capacity remains limited. New passenger flights are being introduced gradually. As airlines avoid Ukraine airspace, they are forced to take longer routes which require more fuel and less cargo per flight. Spot market prices have increased in turn.

Oceania

Traditionally, the softest period in the market is post-Easter holiday to the end of the financial year. In combination with the general election, there is an expectation that this softer period may return.

There is no doubt the market is still interrupted compared to 2019. However, flights are resuming, passengers are travelling more, and belly space has returned across the globe as carriers look toward the northern summer season.

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Ocean Freight Update

Global

Expect rates to rise in the next several months. There will be increases to the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) charged by carriers to account for sharply rising fuel costs. We expect carriers to begin to make BAF adjustments monthly, as opposed to previously making these assessments quarterly.

Average delay of late vessels

line graph showing average delay of late vessels

Source: © Sea—Intelligence Maritime Analysis

  • Average month-over-month improvement in February 2022
  • Delays continue to be highest across each month when compared historically
  • Demand has increased, creating vessel bunching, berthing delays, and reduced-yard capacity
  • Blank/void sailings are used by carriers to mediate congestion

Global schedule reliability

bar chart showing global freight schedule reliability

Source: © Sea—Intelligence Maritime Analysis, Global Liner Performance Report

Schedule reliability improved February 2022, the first significant recovery month-over-month since March 2020. Overall, schedules will continue to remain challenged because of port congestion.

Additional considerations to remember:

  • Forecast 6–8 weeks minimum
  • Prioritization
  • Variability in SKUs/parts
  • Smooth volumes week-to-week
  • Regular communication with C.H. Robinson

Africa

The port in Durban, South Africa closed after heavy rains caused severe flooding and mudslides in the city. All terminal operations were on hold and rail lines in parts of KwaZulu-Natal province were operating at limited capacity. Floodwater carried away shipping containers as bridges and roads collapsed. Durban port is the largest and busiest shipping terminal in sub-Saharan Africa.

Asia

Space at Port of Shanghai is critical for temperature-controlled and hazardous cargo. Carriers are refusing new bookings and diverting containers already destined for Shanghai.

Congestion at transshipment ports average 15–30 days in Busan, Kaohsiung, and Singapore.

Europe

Port omissions in Europe have increased, particularly at ports in Hamburg, Rotterdam, and United Kingdom.

Growing congestion is worsened by containers destined for Russia, Ukraine, or Belarus that are now being terminated at transshipment ports until re-routing instructions are received from cargo owners.

A report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warns that 1.5 million containers of Asia-Europe rail cargo could be converted to ocean freight because of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Should this occur, space will become very tight and freight rates will rise.

North America

Export space availability from United States to North Asia ports has improved, especially direct service and port-to-port business from United States West Coast (USWC).

Carriers have shifted vessel capacity from USWC to United States East Coast (USEC) ports to address the significant congestion felt on the West Coast. The move will also provide alternative routing solutions in the event of labor disruptions at Los Angeles/Long Beach when the current union contract expires June 30, 2022.

Full Container Load (FCL) terminals in Northern Europe and USEC have had constantly shifting vessel schedules and low on-time performance. This will undermine stability on the Trans-Atlantic trade, creating bottlenecks that will make the USEC the next hot spot for high congestion. This will lead to intermittent vessel backlogs outside the ports of Charleston, Savannah, New York, New Jersey, and Virginia.

South America

Congestion at East Coast South America (ECSA) ports is significant because of an increase in COVID-19 cases and strong northbound demand. Space remains open to ECSA ports.

Space to West Coast ports is extremely reduced as many carriers have suspended services.

South Asia

The congestion at Chittagong, Bangladesh port persists, and space is limited. A congestion surcharge is in effect. Rates are significantly higher from USWC ports to Indian Sub-Continent (ISC) as carriers try to encourage routing of cargo from USEC or United States Gulf Coast (USGC) ports where there are more direct services.

Space continues to be limited. We recommend booking 4–5 weeks in advance.

Oceania

The Southeast Asia market remains very strong, with demand continuing to strengthen. Expect this trade to remain strong in the months ahead.

Post-Lunar New Year (LNY), the Northeast Asia market has softened. Both added capacity and new services have also had a negative impact on rates. We anticipate this trade will remain under pressure until at least May/June 2022.

The Trans-Tasman market continues to be strong with limited capacity. Carriers plan to replace smaller vessels with larger ships in the upcoming months.

Carriers have announced omissions to Auckland, New Zealand from USWC. To assist in easing congestion, look for:

  • Return of Seattle fortnight call
  • Weekly Oakland, CA service
  • Intentions to drop Long Beach, CA to fortnight rotation in June

Weekly service from USEC has been reliable, although vessel delays in Australia has caused both Melbourne and Sydney port omissions. As capacity shifts from USWC to USEC to sidestep the West Coast congestion and delays with Transpacific Eastbound (TPEB) trade lanes, we will see the USEC ports deteriorate over the next 4–6 weeks.

Heavy vessel delays in Europe and Australia will continue to cause weekly change of rotations until the end of Quarter 2. Recent flooding in Brisbane, Australia has added another obstacle to an already complex timetable.

The Easter holiday will have an impact on all facets of the supply chain—delays and congestion will be more noticeable. Holiday and weekend surcharges will be enforced by carriers to recover costs.

Inland Drayage Update

Asia

The extended COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai have caused re-routing of cargo to nearby cities to become more difficult. A large portion of truck capacity is out of service and most warehouses in the city are closed.

Anticipate delays in cross border trucking between Hong Kong and Shenzhen.

Europe

Fuel prices have surged in the last several weeks. Inland carriers have adjusted their rates or implemented a Fuel Emergency Surcharge (FES).

UK customs officials are working to resolve IT issues which have created long delays for freight traffic trying to cross the Channel. In conjunction with suspended services by P&O ferries, transportation from UK to France is experiencing heavy delays.

North America

North American inland transportation lead times 

There is a shortage of truckers for hazardous cargo in the New York/New Jersey area. On average, one month is required to secure a hazardous trucker to move any containers back to the port.

What other considerations should you be aware of:

  • Move hazardous cargo through alternative routes
  • Shipment approval will face delays from all origins

Genset shortages have plagued the Northeast region. The influx of refrigerated cargo from Europe has caused surges in the area. Reefers will sit in the terminal past the Last Free Day (LFD) and accrue additional charges. Carriers are declining temperature-controlled freight as a result.

Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) will upgrade their current terminal operation systems this spring. Expect potential short-term disruptions during the transition.

Chassis shortages continue to be the biggest challenge throughout the Ohio Valley, Memphis, and Nashville markets.

The BNSF light loading program for agricultural cargo will apply to both Chicago (LPC) and Kansas City (LPKC) rail ramps. The rail line will heavily enforce weight restrictions at 52,000 lbs. for 40’ containers and 48,000 lbs. for 20’ containers. The rail weight limitations are different than over the road.

Carriers in Oakland continue to struggle with port congestion and lack of empty locations. Capacity for exports and refrigerated freight is limited. Lead time for imports is 4–6 weeks minimum.

Capacity and chassis equipment is very tight in Seattle and Tacoma. Both drayage and transloading options are extremely limited.

Oceania

Vessel bunching on the West Coast in recent weeks has resulted in back-to-back loading and unloading. Current COVID-19 isolation protocols, regardless of vaccination status, have caused additional strain on limited resources. It is estimated that 20% of drivers have been removed from the labor force because of vaccination mandates.

Congestion surcharges have been introduced to help recover costs. Be aware of delays on wharf collections, deliveries, returns of empty containers—all which may result in assessment of detention fees.

Access to major bio-security depots in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia is limited. Wharf disruptions after recent record floods in the area have cleared. However, expect work to remove the backlog of export volumes to continue in the upcoming weeks.

Anticipate disruptions in scheduling as vessel bunching in Victoria, Australia creates havoc to an already strained transportation system. Capacity limits with importers’ warehouses, empty container parks, and terminals are still challenged. Major delays on the return of empty containers along the East Coast will persist because of constrained resources within the container logistics network.

Intermodal trucking has improved in recent weeks as chassis availability has recovered slightly.

Customs Update

North America

Certain Section 301 China duty exclusions retroactively reinstated

As stated in a press release published on March 23, 2022, “the United States Trade Representative (USTR) reinstated 352 previously expired Section 301 China duty exclusions.”

The exclusions will be retroactively applied from October 12, 2021, and made valid until December 31, 2022. The products contained in this list cover all four Section 301 lists.

To better understand your duty recovery potential, for entries where C.H. Robinson acted as your customs broker, reach out to your account representative for a comprehensive duty recovery analysis today. We are here to collaborate with you and provide support every step of the way.

United States and UK reach steel and aluminum imports agreement

In March, a joint statement announced a newly formed agreement between the United States and United Kingdom (UK) regarding the treatment of Section 232 tariffs. As a result, tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on aluminum and steel imports will be in effect and are set to begin June 1, 2022. Aluminum and steel products from the UK that are in-quota will enter free of any Section 232 additional duty.

This means only certain aggregate annual import volume limits under each category will be allowed to enter to be considered in-quota and enter free of any Section 232 additional duties. An additional 10 percent (aluminum) and 25 percent (steel) ad valorem Section 232 duty rate will be imposed for applicable imports more than the TRQ quantities.

Ensure you continue to stay informed on weekly status updates on TRQs by reviewing commodity status reports published by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

Aluminum and steel derivatives from the UK will no longer be subject to Section 232 additional duties.

Suspension of normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus

On April 8, 2022 President Biden signed into law a bill to suspend permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) with Russia and Belarus, which will result in higher tariffs on the import of goods from these countries.

In addition, a bill was also signed banning Russian oil.

Stay informed on the latest news, insights, and resources from our customs and trade policy experts by subscribing to our North American Trade & Tariff Insights.

Oceania

Sanctions imposed on imports from Russia and Belarus

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced that Australia will impose an additional 35% tariff on imports from Russia and Belarus, effective April 25, 2022. This sanction is in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Developments in Free Trade Agreements

The Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Free Trade Agreement (ECTA) was signed April 2, 2022. It provides a competitive tariff elimination or reduction on a wide range of Australian export goods. The origin of goods must be proven by a certificate of origin issued by an issuing body or authority. The interim Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is not expected to be implemented this year.

On March 17, 2022, a joint statement was issued announcing Australia and the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) intention to pursue a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This bilateral FTA would be the first for Australia and the Middle East and an important building block.

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Trade lane updates

Use these insights to forecast how capacity changes and trends impact your business. Create customized, shareable reports by adding your preferred trade lanes. Check back each month for the latest updates in the lanes you care about. Updated ocean and air freight market insights will be available the third Thursday of each month.

Market status key:
Stable
Strained
Critical

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Trade lane FAQs

Q: What are C.H. Robinson's definitions of ‘stable,’ ‘strained,’ and ‘critical’?

Stable: Green – Relatively open capacity and low spot market rates
Strained: Yellow – Capacity is tight and mid-level spot market rates
Critical: Red – Backlog of capacity and high spot market rates

Q: What do the terms and acronyms commonly used in market updates mean?

  • Blank sailings – Blank sailings occur when a carrier has removed a vessel rotation from a given service string. This results in one week where there is no vessel sailing offered at the ports called on that particular service string.

  • CY – Container Yard. A location where containers are stored temporarily during transit. It can be a port terminal, rail terminal, or trucker’s yard.

  • Extra loader – An extra loader is a vessel that an ocean carrier has added to a service string to increase capacity in the short term. This vessel would not be part of the standard vessel rotation on that service string. It would be removed as soon as it is no longer required to meet excess demand.

  • FEU – Forty Foot Equivalent Unit. The forty foot represents a 40′ container.

  • GRI – General Rate Increase. This is one of the mechanisms ocean carriers can use to increase rates for ocean transport on a particular trade.

  • IPI – Interior Point Intermodal. Also known as rail ramps, these are inland points to/from which carriers can offer service on a through bill of lading.

  • PSS – Peak Season Surcharge. This surcharge is typically applied by ocean carriers during the peak shipping period on a given trade lane, where vessel space is either fully utilized or overbooked.

  • Roll/roll pools – A “roll“ happens when a container booked on a given sailing/vessel is transferred by the steamship line to the following vessel serving the requested lane. A “roll pool” is created when a steamship line plans for a large number of containers to roll from one vessel to another.

  • SSL – Steamship line or ocean carrier

  • Steamship line alliance – Alliances occur when a group of steamship lines share vessel space on their service strings and manage services in agreement with each other. There are currently three steamship line alliances on the main east-west trades: the Ocean Alliance, 2M Alliance, and The Alliance.

  • TEU – Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit. The twenty foot represents a 20′ container.

  • Transshipment – This service offered transports cargo in two legs on two different vessels. The first vessel brings the container from the port of origin to the port of transshipment. The second vessel brings the container from the port of transshipment to the final destination port.

  • VSA – Vessel Sharing Agreement. This is an agreement between steamship lines to share slots (space) on a service string or vessel.

Market insight videos

Watch these short videos to gain a better understanding of the market dynamics affecting global supply chains and the movement of goods around the globe.

Wheeled v. grounded U.S. inland terminals

Explore the difference between wheeled and grounded U.S. inland terminals with Jenna Kuehn, Director of Global Forwarding Inland at C.H. Robinson.

The chassis shortage

Learn about the dynamics behind equipment shortages in the U.S. inland market with Jenna Kuehn, Director of Global Forwarding Inland at C.H. Robinson.

Air freight and Shanghai labor market

Learn how labor challenges in China are affecting air freight in Shanghai with Keith Nehring, Senior Air Product Development Manager.

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