U.S. truckload markets remain under capacity pressure

U.S. spot market

The month of May continued to demonstrate the impact of a supply-driven market reset. Roadcheck Week, when many carriers prefer to keep their trucks off the road, was the tightest we have observed for that period from a load-to-truck-ratio perspective and exhibited great price volatility.

While other events or holidays are influenced by trucking demand to varying degrees, Roadcheck Week is a stronger signal about the state of supply. (For insights into the impact of 2026 Roadcheck Week, watch the May edition of the C.H. Robinson Edge Video.)

The month of June will see increases in seasonal freight demand leading up to the July 4 holiday, due to the overlap of produce season and peak beverage seasons. We continue to monitor manufacturing output trends and carrier supply, as both will likely be impactful to the market experience in the second half of 2026. We have not changed our 2026 forecast and it remains under review.

For deeper insight into truckload market cycles, variables that influence them, and current conditions, see our blog post: The New Research Behind Truckload Market Cycles–and What Shippers Should Watch.

For-hire carrier authorities

The trend of decreasing trucking capacity continued in May, moving from the high end of the historic trend range more clearly into the middle of the historic range. This reinforces that the excess capacity after the COVID-era freight boom has been materially reduced.

For-hire carrier authorities

Contract truckload environment

The following insights are derived from C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions™, which serves a large portfolio of customers across diverse industries.

Route guide depth is an indicator of how far a shipper needs to go into their backup strategies when awarded transportation providers reject a tender. A route guide depth of 1.0 would be perfect performance, and 2.0 would be extremely poor. Route guide failures happen when the route guide has been exhausted with no preferred carriers accepting the freight, sending the shipment into the spot market.

As displayed in the following chart, the route guide depth had remained flat at a historically low level for three years (2022-2025). Beginning in late November 2025, the first signs of a changing market showed up as route guide depth surpassed 1.3 for the first time in years. Since then, route guides have remained challenged due decreasing capacity navigating through a series of winter storms and increased diesel prices.

For the month of May, route guide depth across all North America shipments was 1.48, which is worse compared to the previous month of 1.32, reversing the improvement experienced in April and demonstrating the impact of Roadcheck Week. The 1.48 average RGD is the highest reading since 2022.

From a mileage perspective, long hauls of more than 600 miles had the worst route guide performance, with a depth of 1.78 in May. That is 20% worse compared to April 2026 (1.48), and 32% worse compared to May 2025 (1.25). This performance of long-haul shipments is indicative of the supply challenges particular to the carrier base focused on long-distance over-the-road freight.

While shorter hauls of less than 400 miles continue to be the best route guide performers, depth for May 2026 was 1.28, which is highest month-over-month increase for that shipment group since the first market swing in December 2025.

North America route guide depth metrics: By length of haul

Geographically, the West continued to be the best performing region, as it experienced the smallest change of all regions, worsening by 0.8% from the previous month. The Northeast experienced the worst monthly change at 40% higher than May. Route guide depth is becoming stressed for all regions, varying between 1.14 and 1.84. This range is a good reminder that the U.S. freight market is not monolithic, and experience can vary by region.

U.S. route guide depth metrics: By region

Route guide failures breached 7% in May, demonstrating the impact of 2026 Roadcheck Week on the truckload market. This is the highest route guide failure rate since the 2026 New Year’s holiday.

U.S. route guide failures

Refrigerated truckload

East Coast United States

Refrigerated conditions along the East Coast vary from north to south. Catch-up shipments after Roadcheck Week and Memorial Day have moderated, with most lanes settling back into more typical seasonal patterns.

Capacity across the Southeast is tight, and remains sensitive to short-term demand spikes, particularly in produce-heavy corridors. Georgia particularly continues to experience tightening tied to residual produce movement, which can create pockets of elevated outbound pricing. Capacity is improving for outbound Northeast loads, while rates slowly begin to normalize as backlogs of freight are being worked through.

Execution dynamics continue to favor well-structured freight. Loads with consistent schedules, minimal handling requirements, and ample lead time are covered efficiently, while expedited or same-day tenders face more variability in both cost and available capacity. This reflects a market that is stable on the surface but still requires disciplined planning to avoid disruption.

As June progresses, East Coast markets are expected to remain bifurcated due to the seasonal harvest. Overall, capacity is available, but pricing and flexibility are becoming more critical to securing it, especially in Southeast produce markets and where there’s an imbalance in return freight.

Central United States

Refrigerated market conditions across the Mid-North have shown some easing following Roadcheck Week, with activity returning closer to seasonal norms. At this stage, no immediate large-scale disruptions are expected outside of typical holiday-driven surges, suggesting a more stable short-term environment across these lanes.

In contrast, Texas continues to experience elevated rates and tighter capacity conditions. Markets in the region remain highly competitive, driven by a combination of produce shipping, cross-border dynamics, and overall supply constraints. As a result, the market is operating with limited room for inefficiency.

Overall, Texas continues to be the most disrupted and elevated refrigerated market in the region on a year-over-year basis. While conditions elsewhere have begun to normalize, Texas remains a focal point for tight capacity, elevated pricing, and ongoing volatility—making it a key area for shippers to monitor as peak produce and beverage seasons progress.

Shipment characteristics are also playing a larger role in execution. Straight-through freight with minimal handling requirements is securing capacity more quickly, while shipments with added complexity—such as multiple pickups or deliveries—are seeing disproportionately higher costs and longer lead times to cover. This divergence is becoming more pronounced as carriers prioritize efficiency and asset utilization.

West Coast United States

Refrigerated market conditions across the West have largely mirrored trends seen in the Central region, with significant tightening observed through Roadcheck Week and the Memorial Day shipping cycle. During this period, many lanes experienced meaningful rate acceleration, with increases of 40% or more in some high-demand corridors.

While capacity remains accessible, execution has become increasingly dependent on planning and lead time. Loads that are prebooked with adequate notice continue to secure more favorable pricing and consistent coverage. In contrast, same-day tenders and recovery freight are encountering both elevated costs and limited carrier availability, reflecting a market that remains highly reactive to short-term demand spikes.

As June progresses, some modest easing from peak holiday pricing is expected. However, any downward movement is likely to be limited. Backlogs created during the recent surge are still working their way through the system, which is delaying meaningful cost normalization. This dynamic could push out any significant relief until after the July 4 shipping cycle, which typically begins to build momentum in the back half of June.

From a regional and commodity perspective, several key produce-driven factors continue to shape market conditions:

• Northern California is expected to remain elevated due to sustained and diversified produce volumes, keeping outbound refrigerated demand strong.
• Nogales, Arizona, continues to ramp up with watermelon season, further tightening capacity across key Southwest lanes
• Washington is entering cherry season in early June, which is expected to introduce Increased upward pressure on rates and longer dwell times as volumes build and facilities work through higher throughput.

Across most Western markets, capacity is technically available, but access is increasingly linked to price. In practical terms, trucks are available but often at a premium, particularly for short lead-time or high-demand freight. This dynamic is contributing to higher instances of route guide failure, as contract rates lag current market conditions and more freight is pushed into the spot market.

Overall, West Coast refrigerated conditions remain elevated and highly sensitive to both produce flows and short-term demand changes, with execution increasingly dependent on planning discipline and pricing flexibility.

Flatbed truckload

May proved to be an especially volatile month for the flatbed market, driven largely by the combined impacts of Roadcheck Week and the Memorial Day holiday period. These events compounded already-tight capacity and contributed to sharp swings in both pricing and truck availability across several key regions. National flatbed load-to-truck ratios peaked at approximately 87 to 1 during the month, marking the highest levels observed since 2022.

Despite these elevated conditions, historical trends suggest the market is beginning to move beyond its period of peak tightness. May has traditionally represented the most constrained point of the flatbed cycle, with conditions typically stabilizing through June before broader relief after the July 4 holiday. While capacity is expected to remain constrained throughout the summer months, current indicators suggest the market is likely past its most acute phase of volatility.

Market dynamics continue to reflect sustained spot market activity. Spot freight volumes remain elevated relative to contracted freight, while contract tender rejections continue to trend above levels seen over the past several years. Flatbed spot rates in April were approximately 25% higher year over year, with May maintaining similar momentum. Conditions in June are expected to remain elevated compared to historical averages, although pricing volatility should begin to moderate as the market progresses through the later stages of peak construction season.

Contract pricing has also continued to firm. Flatbed contract rates, excluding fuel, increased by over 5% month over month in April and are more than 9% higher year over year. This reflects continued carrier pricing discipline and carriers’ need to offset their higher operating expenses.

The pace of tightening is expected to slow as the market moves into mid-summer. Regional imbalances, weather variability, and ongoing seasonal construction activity as the early stages of hurricane season approaches are likely to continue driving periodic volatility across key lanes.

In this environment, planning and flexibility remain critical to maintaining service levels and managing transportation costs:

• Increasing lead time, where possible, can improve coverage and reduce exposure to premium spot pricing.
• Allowing flexibility in pickup windows and ship dates can expand available carrier options.
• Flexibility in equipment, where feasible, can improve access to capacity. Utilizing step-decks or Conestoga trailers alongside standard flatbeds may increase coverage.
• Maintaining close coordination with your C.H. Robinson account manager can help you monitor regional patterns and proactively position your freight.

Voice of the Carrier

Observations from a cross-section of the contract carriers in the C.H. Robinson network—the largest in North America.

Market

• Rates are trending higher, with carriers showing a willingness to walk away from underpriced freight.
• Increased reliance on mini-bids and more frequent network adjustments reflect continued routing guide disruption.
• Shippers are adapting through earlier planning, network optimization, and a greater focus on becoming a “shipper of choice.”

Drivers

• Driver availability continues to decline, with shortages most pronounced among experienced CDL holders.
• Carriers are becoming more selective with driver hiring, rejecting a higher share of applicants due to compliance and qualification standards.
• Turnover is increasing as wages and incentives rise, adding further volatility to labor availability.

Equipment

• Carriers leaving the business, fleet downsizing, and consolidation are reducing available equipment across the market.
• Many fleets are operating at or near full utilization, limiting flexibility to absorb demand spikes or disruptions.
• Rising costs across fuel, insurance, maintenance, and parts continue to limit reinvesting in more or newer equipment.

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