A sign of tightening capacity, route-guide failures are back on the rise

U.S. spot market

U.S. spot market forecast: Dry van truckload

The C.H. Robinson 2026 dry van cost per mile forecast remains at +30% year over year (y/y), while the 2027 forecast remains at +10% y/y.

C.H. Robinson spot market dry van truckload forecast

U.S. spot market forecast: Refrigerated truckload

The C.H. Robinson 2026 refrigerated van cost per mile forecast remains at +31% y/y, while the 2027 forecast remains at +11% y/y.

C.H. Robinson spot market refrigerated truckload forecast

U.S. spot market forecast: Flatbed truckload

The C.H. Robinson 2026 flatbed cost per mile forecast remains at +28% y/y, while the 2027 forecast remains at +10% y/y.

C.H. Robinson spot market flatbed truckload forecast

Contract truckload environment

The following insights are derived from C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions™, which serves a large portfolio of customers across diverse industries.

Route guide depth is an indicator of how far a shipper needs to go into their backup strategies when awarded transportation providers reject a tender. A route guide depth of 1.0 would be perfect performance, and 2.0 would be extremely poor.

Route guide failures happen when the route guide has been exhausted with no preferred carriers accepting the freight, sending the shipment into the spot market.

As displayed in the charts below, after three years of historically flat conditions in 2022 through 2025, route guide performance has been a sign of the dynamic nature of the truckload market in 2026. During the Fourth of July holiday period when spot market pricing peaked, route guide depth and route guide failures also saw the worst performance of 2026.

Since then, the market has calmed. Route guides performed better in August than the previous two months, with an average route guide depth across all North America shipments of 1.35. Due to the Labor Day holiday, route guide depth and failures spiked once more, but have been trending downward since.

From a mileage perspective, length of haul continues to be a determining factor of route guide conditions, with shorter hauls of less than 400 miles (1.25) performing significantly better than those shipments greater than 600 miles (1.51).

North America route-guide-depth metrics: By length of haul

Geographically, the South experienced the largest improvement of all regions as peak produce season wrapped up, improving to 1.33 compared to 1.43 the previous month.

U.S. route-guide-depth metrics: By region

Route-guide failures had been decreasing from the summer peak of 7.5%, demonstrating the expected seasonal softening in the truckload market following the Fourth of July holiday. They decreased to nearly 5% before rising over 6% in recent weeks.

Route-guide failure rates remain significantly higher than previous years’ levels.

U.S. route-guide failures

Refrigerated truckload

Nationally, refrigerated spot-market rates including fuel reached a record $3.60 per mile during September, surpassing the previous all-time high established in February 2022 during the pandemic.

However, the underlying story is very different. Linehaul-only rates remain well below the 2022 peak, highlighting how much of today's pricing is being driven by fuel rather than freight demand alone.

East Coast United States

The Eastern refrigerated market has begun following expected patterns on the downside of peak produce shipping in northern growing regions. The Northeast experienced one of the largest declines in outbound load-to-truck ratios during September, reflecting improving equipment availability and easing capacity conditions.

While rates remain elevated compared to historical levels, much of the recent upward movement has come from fuel surcharges rather than underlying transportation demand.

Looking ahead, the Northeast market is expected to loosen further during October. Refrigerated trucking capacity should be readily available relative to the summer harvest period, although diesel costs will continue to support higher all-in transportation rates than many shippers typically expect at this time of year.

Central United States

Refrigerated market conditions across the Central United States continue to normalize following peak produce season. The Upper Midwest experienced meaningful relief in outbound load-to-truck ratios during September as harvest-related freight began moderating and capacity returned to the area from elsewhere.

At the same time, southern markets have seen linehaul rates move lower as demand softened from summer highs.

Despite easing linehaul costs, total transportation costs remain elevated because of higher fuel surcharges. As October begins, freight conditions across much of the region are expected to stabilize, with Texas and Upper Midwest markets following more traditional seasonal patterns.

While widespread capacity tightness is not anticipated, diesel prices will remain a key influence on shipper transportation budgets.

West Coast United States

The Western refrigerated market may be the tightest region in the country. The Pacific Northwest has experienced the most significant capacity tightening in recent weeks, supported by seasonal produce. Pacific Northwest capacity is expected to remain tight through October as the harvest continues.

Diesel prices exceeding $8 per gallon in parts of the region have pushed up refrigerated transportation costs at a time in the season when rates would normally soften. While the Southwest typically sees rates decline during September, conditions remained firm.

California markets are expected to remain heavily influenced by fuel costs. Even if linehaul pricing stabilizes, elevated diesel prices are likely to keep all-in refrigerated transportation costs well above seasonal norms.

Flatbed truckload

Following a strong summer construction and project-freight season, the flatbed market continues to demonstrate stability. Demand remains supported by infrastructure projects, manufacturing activity, energy investments, and data center construction.

But the broad surge in flatbed demand experienced earlier in the summer has largely cooled and is moving in line with seasonal expectations across much of the country. As a result, flatbed linehaul rates are down modestly since mid-August.

However, total transportation costs tell a different story. Despite lower linehaul pricing, rising diesel prices have pushed all-in flatbed rates approximately 5% higher over the same period.

Fuel has become an increasingly important cost driver for both carriers and shippers, particularly in the flatbed market where repositioning trucks and trailers often means significant non-revenue miles. Deadhead cuts into carrier profitability and makes fuel-cost recovery a growing focus across the industry.

While most regions are following expected seasonal trends, several areas have tightened more than anticipated. The Northeast experienced the most significant increase in load-to-truck ratios during September, exceeding normal seasonal patterns.

Industrial freight, construction-related demand, and ongoing project work have contributed to tighter capacity conditions in the region. Capacity is anticipated to remain relatively constrained throughout October.

The Mid-North and Southeast also experienced some tightening during September, though at a much more tempered pace. Capacity remains available in most areas, but the combination of steady industrial demand and higher operating costs has prevented the broader easing that many would typically expect heading into the fourth quarter.

Outside of those regions, flatbed market conditions are generally behaving as seasonal trends would suggest. Summer freight surges have moderated, construction is beginning its typically gradual slowdown, and October is expected to bring relatively stable market conditions.

Major disruptions are not anticipated, and linehaul rates are likely to remain near current levels. Fuel will remain the primary wildcard. If diesel prices stay elevated, all-in transportation costs could stay above seasonal norms even if underlying flatbed supply and demand continue moving toward balance.

As a result, shippers should focus not only on changes in linehaul rates but also on the growing impact fuel has on total transportation spend.

Voice of the carrier

What are asset-based carriers saying about the current freight environment? These are observations from a cross-section of the contract carriers in the C.H. Robinson network—the largest in North America.

Market

• Most carrier networks have steady demand and elevated tender rejections.
• Carriers continue seeking and obtaining meaningful rate increases for contractual freight to offset rising operating costs.
• Dedicated, repeatable, and high-quality freight is preferred, while inefficient freight is increasingly avoided.
• Record diesel prices remain a major concern. Carriers report that fuel surcharges are failing to cover idle time, extended routing, weather impact, and temperature-controlled freight needs. Carriers continue to feel pain from the increased cost of deadhead mileage and overall cash-flow challenges.

Drivers

• Driver recruiting and retention remain the industry's top challenge, including turnover, a shrinking candidate pool, and increased competition for experienced drivers.
• Driver pay increases, referral bonuses, and investments in recruiting are becoming necessary to maintain staffing levels and seated truck counts.
• Federal enforcement actions tied to commercial driver licenses, visas, and English-language proficiency, for example, are expected to further reduce the available driver pool.

Equipment

• Fleet expansion remains limited, with most carriers focused on their truck replacement cycle, improving trailer utilization, and maintaining financial flexibility.
• Aging trucks, which are less fuel-efficient, and deferred replacement are contributing to higher operating costs, even as carriers begin preparing for future equipment refreshes.
• The rising cost of equipment, financing, maintenance, and insurance premiums continue to cut into profitability and delay large-scale fleet growth.

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