Cross-border capacity hinges on policy, drivers, and flow

U.S.–Mexico

Cross-border freight markets were fairly stable in September, with load-to-truck ratios and freight volumes holding steady at major Texas crossings as seasonal agricultural demand normalized after Labor Day. Trade flows between Mexico and the United States continued to set records, with growth still concentrated in electronics and computer equipment.

But continued U.S. B-1 visa withdrawals for Mexican drivers, along with temporary disruptions at certain crossings along the border, reduced usable capacity at points during September.

The pool of drivers qualified for cross-border operations continues to shrink, and capacity could tighten as fourth-quarter volumes build. The current window may give shippers an opportunity to secure capacity commitments before the market tightens again.

The timeline for negotiations over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has shifted again. The fourth round of bilateral talks had been scheduled for September 28 and 29 in Washington but was postponed with no new date set.

September border complexity

Driver availability remained a key constraint in September. According to CANACAR, U.S. authorities have withdrawn visas from 25,000 Mexican freight drivers.

Two temporary disruptions also affected cross-border flows in September.

Mexican truck drivers disrupted commercial crossings at Mexicali and San Luis Río Colorado in early September to protest the B-1 visa revocations and seek greater clarity around the interpretation of cabotage laws, which prevent Mexican drivers from transporting goods between two points in the United States.

While the disruption was short-lived and localized, it highlighted ongoing concerns that regulatory uncertainty could further constrain cross-border driver availability and equipment flows.

Separately, Mexico's National Customs Agency (ANAM) barred empty trucks from crossing southbound at Eagle Pass and Brownsville, Texas, from September 9 until the restriction was lifted on September 14. Daily commercial crossings fell from about 1,000 to between 300 and 400, and nearly 700 tractors were stranded on the U.S. side.

Because permit limitations prevented many carriers from rerouting through Del Rio, Texas, some carriers returned equipment to Mexico through Laredo instead. The longer route extended repositioning times and added fuel costs, which were reflected in higher rates on affected lanes. The impact remained localized, and conditions at other crossings were not affected.

Border compliance requirements are also expanding. Mexico’s Executive Order 14411, signed in June but with a staggered rollout, aims to strengthen cross-border supply chain security. Additional importer vetting and document reviews could extend clearance times, raise inspection rates, and increase holds for shippers with incomplete compliance records.

Carriers are not directly regulated under the order, but they may face longer dwell times at border crossings, more shipment exceptions, and slower turns, which could further reduce usable capacity. C-TPAT participation and strong documentation practices are likely to become increasingly important for maintaining freight velocity. 

Together, these developments show that usable cross-border capacity depends increasingly on driver eligibility, equipment repositioning, and documentation readiness, not only on available trucks.

Trade flows set new records, with growth still concentrated

Mexico's share of U.S. imports rose to 18.2% in July, the latest available measure. Freight data confirms the same trend. U.S.–Mexico cross-border freight continued to grow at a double-digit annual pace in July, with trucks carrying the large majority of that trade. Laredo, El Paso, and Otay Mesa remained the leading truck gateways.

U.S.-origin investment in Mexico has been positive in the first half of 2026, even with all the USMCA uncertainty. It grew 14.7% year over year and represented 48% of the total foreign direct investment Mexico received in this timeframe. Investment was concentrated in Central Mexico states and in the northeast in Nuevo León and signals future cross-border freight demand.

Hurricane season remains a planning variable

Hurricane season in Mexico remains active through November, and recent weather along Mexico's Pacific coast is a reminder of the exposure it creates for freight. Hurricane Polo led to temporary restrictions at several Pacific ports, including Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas.

Heavy rainfall from systems like this can affect highway corridors connecting Pacific ports to Guadalajara, the Bajío, and northern border crossings.

Shippers moving port-originated freight northbound should build additional lead time into plans and confirm contingency routing with their carriers.

What shippers should consider

• Now is the time to secure Q4 cross-border capacity commitments before volumes build and to consider cross-border consolidation to maximize the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of freight flow.
• September's disruptions show the value of having flexible crossing options.
• Cross-docking facilities at the border can give shippers access to a larger pool of U.S. drivers when B-1 capacity is limited.
• For time-sensitive freight originating at Pacific ports, contingency routing and additional lead time should remain part of planning through November.

U.S.–Canada

Cross-border freight markets remain heavily influenced by trade policy. Following new U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on select Canadian goods in late August and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products in September, supply chains spent much of the month adjusting.

Additional revisions to the U.S. Section 338 tariff measures occurred in September, while proposed U.S. import restrictions in late September added another layer of uncertainty for manufacturers, distributors, and transportation providers.

September also highlighted how quickly policy developments can influence freight flows. Similar to the shipment acceleration observed ahead of the August tariff implementation, some shippers moved freight forward in advance of September deadlines to reduce potential tariff exposure.

These surges created short-term increases in transportation demand despite limited changes to underlying economic activity. The result has been a market where freight volumes are driven more by inventory positioning and trade-policy timing than by organic demand growth.

New ban on $1 billion of Canadian imports

The U.S.-Canada trade dispute intensified as the United States implemented an import ban September 29 on nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian products, including alcoholic beverages, dairy items, and motorcycles.

While this further strains trade relations between the two countries, the direct impact is expected to be limited. Annual trade between both countries totals $880 billion and the affected products were already subject to steep U.S. tariffs, which had significantly reduced their competitiveness in the U.S. market.

Capacity remains unbalanced

Underlying market fundamentals changed little during the month. Southbound freight into the United States continued to outperform northbound demand, maintaining a capacity imbalance that has persisted throughout much of 2026.

Capacity remained tighter on many Canada-to-U.S. lanes, while generally more favorable in the reverse direction. This imbalance is expected to continue through October, although future policy announcements or additional retaliatory actions could create periodic demand spikes like those experienced in recent months.

Looking ahead, the primary challenge for many shippers is likely to be planning around uncertainty rather than securing transportation capacity. Freight continues to move efficiently across the border, but transportation demand is increasingly influenced by policy, tariff timelines, and inventory-management decisions.

Shippers should expect continued volatility in freight flows as supply chains adapt to an evolving North American trade environment.

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