Regional trends signal early high season in 2026

Intermodal volumes see modest rise

Strong freight demand and continued volatility in diesel prices are placing renewed pressure on the over‑the‑road trucking market, expanding the number of lanes where intermodal represents a compelling alternative. With winter‑related disruptions behind, intermodal activity is continuing to build momentum. According to the Association of American Railroads, intermodal volumes increased 1.7% in March following a 3.6% gain in February, reinforcing a steady recovery in demand.

Looking ahead, modest freight growth is expected through June, with stronger acceleration anticipated in the second half of 2026, assuming continued stabilisation and tightening in the truckload market.

2026 seasonal positioning

Following a muted 2025 high season, southern California has returned to more normalised operating conditions as U.S.-China trade flows stabilise and tariff policy becomes more predictable. April indicators pointed to rising outbound demand from California origin markets. Shippers are encouraged to secure committed intermodal pricing as early as possible.

New driver regulations, combined with the highest fuel costs in the country, are accelerating interest in alternatives to over-the-road transportation in California. If current trends persist, a strong—and potentially early—West Coast high season is likely in 2026.

Nationally, intermodal adoption continues to broaden. Throughout the first quarter, shippers increasingly relied on intermodal solutions to offset rising truckload costs and improve overall network efficiency. ACT Research polling indicates the U.S. trucking industry is entering a period of driver under-supply for the first time in approximately 3.5 years, further reinforcing the case for mode diversification.

Intermodal spot market dynamics

Rail intermodal spot pricing remains competitive and closely aligned with truckload rates for now. However, truckload pricing continues to rise quickly as spot-market capacity tightens. With Roadcheck Week 12-14 May and produce season accelerating, truckload conditions are expected to remain constrained in the near term.

Rail rate increases are projected to remain in the low single digits for most of 2026, widening the rate gap between rail and truck. This dynamic continues to reinforce intermodal’s cost advantage, particularly in southern California, the Southeast and the Midwest, where trucking capacity remains under pressure.

Demand growth is most pronounced in the 550‑ to 1,500‑mile range, as freight that shifted back to truckload during the market downturn continues to return to intermodal.

Additional factors contributing to truckload pressure include:

• Strict CDL enforcement
• Increased driver selectivity
• Rising diesel costs affecting carrier profitability
• Evolving cross‑border regulations limiting capacity near the southern border

Fuel cost impact on intermodal

National average diesel prices have risen to approximately $5.50 per gallon, the highest level since 2022. Fuel surcharge programs tied to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) index are adjusting accordingly. Elevated fuel costs are also contributing to a tightening truckload capacity, as smaller carriers continue to face margin pressure and exit the market.

Global delivery disruptions are also contributing to higher transportation costs as longer routings and operational inefficiencies increase fuel consumption across supply chains.

A key structural distinction remains important:

• Truckload fuel surcharges are generally calculated on a per‑mile basis.
• Intermodal fuel surcharges are typically percentage‑based and tied to linehaul rates.

Applying truckload‑based fuel tables to intermodal moves can unnecessarily inflate costs. Shippers that align fuel programmes with intermodal‑specific surcharge structures are better positioned to preserve savings, particularly while diesel prices remain elevated and volatile.

Intermodal pricing outlook for the remainder of 2026

Committed 2026 intermodal pricing continues to vary by region:

• West Coast outbound: Trending higher, with many contracts activating 1 June or later in anticipation of high season
• Other regions: Experiencing modest year‑over‑year increases of approximately 2-5%, largely in line with inflation

Fuel strategy remains a critical cost lever, as misaligned fuel programmes can meaningfully erode intermodal savings if not addressed proactively. As RFP cycles progress, shippers should prioritise providers with strong rail partnerships to support both pricing discipline and capacity reliability.

Key intermodal strategies for 2026

• Evaluate total landed cost, not just linehaul rates.
• Implement blended mode strategies to reduce network volatility.
• Identify lanes where intermodal meets service and transit requirements.
• Pilot new intermodal lanes early to secure capacity ahead of continued truckload inflation.

Service performance expectations

Class I railroads continue to deliver strong and stable service performance, supported by:

• Fewer held trains
• Consistent train speeds
• Reduced terminal dwell
• Lower locomotive idling

Overall network capacity remains available, though equipment positioning is becoming increasingly important as regional demand patterns shift and early imbalances begin to emerge.

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