Trade picture gets more complex with tariff talks, escalations, and sanctions

Results of the U.S.-China summit

The September summit between the U.S. president and his Chinese counterpart produced several announcements. Most notably, the governments said they agreed to a new "30-for-30" framework that could reduce tariffs on approximately $30 billion of non-sensitive goods from each side.

The summit also established that a new U.S.-China Board of Trade would serve as a mechanism for ongoing negotiations, and the U.S. administration said the tariff truce between the countries set to expire in November is to be extended until January 10, 2027.

For shippers, such an extension could create selective opportunities for additional trade while preserving some predictability through the holiday shipping season. However, the U.S.-China relationship remains characterized by managed competition rather than lasting stability.

U.S.-Canada trade dispute continues to escalate

Following the breakdown of bilateral negotiations in late August, trade tensions between the United and Canada resulted in significant new steps.

• U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect on August 22.
• Canada retaliated with matching tariffs on U.S. goods beginning September 8.
• The U.S. administration added new products to the list of goods covered by the tariffs in September.
• The announcement of a separate round of 50% tariffs on Canadian automobiles, auto parts, and steel scheduled to take effect January 1, 2027, created additional uncertainty for cross-border supply chains.
• A U.S. import ban on $1 billion of Canadian goods including alcoholic beverages, dairy items, and motorcycles went into effect September 29.

While the import ban further strains trade relations between the two countries, the direct impact is expected to be limited. Annual trade between both countries totals $880 billion and the affected products were already subject to steep U.S. tariffs, which had significantly reduced their competitiveness in the U.S. market.

The U.S. administration continues to signal that manufacturing in the United States remains the policy objective, while North American production remains the next-best option for companies that cannot economically reshore.

Shippers should expect continued negotiations over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and continued enforcement of trade compliance. Customs planning, sourcing flexibility, and diversification even within North America are increasingly important.

Meanwhile, the Canada Border Services Agency has published a new importer guide. It helps Canadian importers understand how to properly declare goods, calculate duties and taxes, register their business, determine the country of origin, and ensure goods are released into the country.

Russia and Iran sanctions tighten

The U.S. administration continues to expand restrictions on trade with Iran and Russia. Increasingly, enforcement efforts are focused not only on Russian and Iranian entities, but also on companies in third countries that finance, arrange, or otherwise facilitate prohibited trade.

Related to Iran, the Treasury has significantly broadened sanctions coupled with more aggressive enforcement on foreign firms involved in Iran-related trade. Regarding Russia, sanctions target energy exports, financial networks, and third-country actors that facilitate Russian trade.

For shippers, expanding sanctions increase the importance of strong trade-compliance processes. Companies should maintain accurate information about suppliers and customers, understand who owns or controls the businesses involved in a transaction, and screen relevant parties against applicable sanctions requirements.

Companies should expect continued scrutiny of transshipment activity, country-of-origin claims, the parties involved in transactions, and potential links to sanctioned countries, entities, or individuals.

Compliance failures can create significant legal, financial, and reputational exposure. For up-to-date information about sanctions and compliance, visit C.H. Robinson’s Trade and Tariff Insights and Customs pages.

Quarterly interest rates on U.S. duties released

U.S. Customs has published the quarterly Internal Revenue Service interest rates used to calculate interest on overdue accounts (underpayments) and refunds (overpayments). These rates could impact your bottom line if you expect to owe duties or receive refunds in the next quarter.

Effective October 1, 2026, the interest rates will remain the same from the previous quarter. Underpayments will be 7% for both corporations and non-corporations, while the interest rate for overpayments will be 7% for non-corporations and 6% for corporations.

Visit our Trade & Tariff Insights page for the latest news, insights, perspectives, and resources from our customs and trade policy experts.

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