The global energy map is shifting. Fuel risks remain.

Considerations for 2027 fuel budgets

As discussed in this month's Energy insights, global oil markets are beginning to diversify while Middle East oil is bottlenecked by the military conflict there. Growing production in Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, along with new export infrastructure around the world, may begin to reduce reliance on a handful of energy-producing regions and trade corridors.

For carriers and shippers, the key question is how quickly those additions can ease today's tight diesel market.

While long-term oil supply fundamentals are improving, diesel markets still face geopolitical uncertainty, lower inventories and higher refining margins due to limited supply compared to demand. Recent attention to the diesel crack spread—the price difference between a barrel of crude oil and the diesel refined from it—is a reminder that diesel prices are influenced by more than just crude oil costs. Strong diesel demand and limited product availability continue to support higher diesel prices even when crude markets ease.

Until global distillate inventories rebuild and trade flows become more normalised, shippers may want to assume that fuel costs will remain elevated relative to planning assumptions going into 2027.

This means balancing optimism and caution. The long-term outlook points toward a more diversified and resilient energy market. For next year's fuel budgets, however, maintaining flexibility and planning for continued diesel price volatility remains the prudent approach.

Average prices of diesel fuel

The U.S. average diesel price per gallon is at the highest level since summer 2022.

U.S. average diesel price per gallon

The Mexico average diesel price per litre has been stable, hovering near 27 pesos for several months.

Mexico average diesel price per litre

The average diesel price in Canada, shown here in Canadian cents per litre, is at the highest level of 2026.

Canada average diesel price per litre

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