Large U.S. importers are pulling forward Q3 orders
Global ocean market
Market momentum and mid-summer risks
Booking activity and freight rates remain elevated heading into early summer, reflecting rising market demand and limited capacity. The temporary lowering of U.S. reciprocal tariffs on imports from around the world and especially the temporary lowering of tariffs on Chinese-made goods, kicked off a steady increase in bookings.
Then on 28 May, new tariff uncertainty arose when a court ruled the U.S. president cannot impose tariffs by declaring a national emergency. This ruling applied to the 10% reciprocal tariffs as well as the 20% tariff related to drug trafficking that was imposed on goods made in China.
A federal appeals court quickly stayed the decision and the tariffs remain in effect while the appeals process unfolds. Arguments are due to the court by 9 June. Because the case could end up in the U.S. Supreme Court, it’s unclear whether a resolution will come before the tariff reductions expire in July and August.
Export container shortages loom
The U.S. export market remains heavily reliant on inbound cargo flows from Asia—particularly the Trans-Pacific lane—to get access to containers. Recent tariff-related demand shifts and blank sailings have significantly reduced the volume of incoming containers. As a result, exporters should expect tightening container availability, particularly at inland rail ramps and U.S. Gulf Coast ports such as Houston, starting in July or August.
U.S. port fees on Chinese-built vessels
The U.S. administration intends to impose a port fee on Chinese-built vessels starting 14 October 2025, with rates increasing gradually over a three-year period. In response, some ocean carriers are expected to shift Chinese-built delivers to other trade lanes to avoid the fee. Others, particularly Chinese operators, may attempt to pass the additional costs on to customers.
As carriers realign their fleets, shippers should anticipate rate volatility and potential service adjustments. Those relying heavily on carriers with large Chinese-built fleets would be particularly affected. To mitigate disruption, C.H. Robinson is closely monitoring carrier announcements.
Asia
Asia-U.S.
Trans-Pacific delivery volumes are expected to rise throughout June, driven by the 90-day lowering of U.S. tariffs on goods imported from China. In response, carriers are restoring vessel capacity on Pacific routes, reversing earlier cuts of 20-30% to the U.S. West Coast (USWC) and 30-40% to the U.S. East Coast (USEC).
Several suspended services are being reinstated, reflecting renewed carrier confidence in freight volumes bouncing back from May. Yet rising rates signal a tightening market. Capacity is expected to be restored by the second half of June and into July.
The Trans-Pacific outlook is also prompting a realignment of vessel deployments elsewhere. As carriers shift assets back to Pacific lanes, rates are beginning to stabilise across other East-West trade corridors. Carriers have held firm on recently implemented rate increases for Asia-Europe and Asia-Latin America routes through June.
Meanwhile, some large importers—particularly U.S. retailers and manufacturers—are pulling forward third-quarter orders from China to sidestep potential tariff hikes when the 90-day window closes in August. The early inventory push is aimed at locking in delivering costs and reducing exposure to future policy shifts.
This front-loading of summer demand is expected to sustain elevated delivery activity through mid-summer, potentially straining available vessel space in the coming weeks. Expect more capacity to return by late June to early July, but bookings should be made three to four weeks in advance, especially for high-demand lanes, to secure space and avoid rate volatility.
Asia-Europe
As global ocean capacity has been reallocated toward the Trans-Pacific trade lane, it has changed capacity availability in other lanes, including Europe. This has caused short-term freight rate increases in the region. Mediterranean ports have seen the highest general rate increases (GRIs), outpacing those in North Europe and reflecting stronger demand and tighter space availability in the Mediterranean region.
A preliminary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Houthi forces, reached on 6 May, 2025, could signal a potential resumption of stable Suez Canal routeing in the future. CMA CGM has indicated plans to return to the Suez Canal for cargo moving from India to the Mediterranean. Beyond safe passage for crews and ships, insurance companies want to see sustained stability in that route before providing coverage for ships and cargo, which is a critical step to resuming more delivering there.
Europe
Port congestion continues to intensify across northern and western Europe, driven by labour strikes, staffing shortages and weather conditions at key terminals including Rotterdam, Antwerp and Le Havre. In April, more than 935,000 TEUs were waiting at anchor outside European ports—representing nearly one-third of global congestion. By late May, vessels were averaging five to six days waiting for berth at key ports, which is abnormal for Europe. This situation is expected to persist through July.
In response, major carrier alliances, such as Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance, have implemented service adjustments. Some U.S.-Europe services have suspended Rotterdam port calls for up to eight weeks, while others have permanently shifted routings to alternative gateways, such as Southampton. While some capacity has returned, June rate increases are planned, as carriers work to balance operational challenges with recovering demand.
Looking ahead, shippers moving freight into or through Europe should anticipate continued delays throughout the summer and explore alternative port routings where possible. Advanced booking and flexibility in inland transport planning will be key to minimising disruption.
Congestion is intensifying at key West Mediterranean ports, including Valencia, Algeciras and Tanger Med, as carriers reroute more cargo through these hubs to reach Middle East and India destinations. The uptick in volume is being driven by shifting trade flows and ongoing disruptions elsewhere in the network.
While vessel capacity remains stable, improving demand and continued blank sailings are amplifying pressure on port infrastructure. These disruptions are compounding delays and increasing complexity across inland transport networks, particularly for time-sensitive cargo.
Shippers using west Mediterranean gateways should prepare for prolonged dwell times and consider building flexibility into both ocean routeing and inland delivery planning.
North America
U.S.-Asia
A sharp decline in deliveries, triggered by higher tariffs on China-U.S. trade imposed in April, prompted ocean carriers to implement aggressive blank sailings. Between mid-May and early July 2025, export routes to North Asia were expected to see a 40% reduction in sailings from the USEC and a 25% reduction from the USWC.
The temporary 90-day tariff reduction between the United States and China announced in May is now fuelling a surge in deliveries, as importers and exporters rush to front-load cargo ahead of the mid-August deadline. This overlapping of rising demand and reduced sailings is expected to create significant space constraints.
While carriers are working to reintroduce capacity into the market, vessel repositioning may delay relief for U.S. exporters until late June or early July.
U.S.-Europe
Trans-Atlantic congestion continues to ease, with further improvements expected in June. Service reliability is set to improve as carriers adjust vessel deployments to align with shifting demand.
Facing a surplus of empty containers, New York terminals are restricting returns and limiting some export bookings to free up vessel space and improve flow. Ongoing blank sailings have hindered carriers’ ability to reposition equipment efficiently. With limited vessel calls and mounting backlogues, this imbalance is expected to persist in the weeks ahead.
U.S.-LATAM
Expanded capacity has helped ease rates on South American lanes, though mounting congestion is causing rates into the Caribbean to climb.
U.S.-South Asia, Middle East, Africa
Amid ongoing tensions, India has banned containerised cargo from Pakistan on vessels calling its ports. As many carriers previously served both countries within the same service loop, this restriction has forced a swift operational pivot. Carriers are now deploying feeder services from Pakistan via transshipment hubs such as Colombo and Jebel Ali to maintain connectivity with North America-bound vessels.
These routeing adjustments have led to increased costs, prompting the implementation of emergency operational surcharges and general rate increases in June 2025.
U.S.-Oceania
Space availability on direct carrier services into Oceania has improved notably since the close of high season, with rates continuing a gradual decline amid softened demand. With congestion easing at USEC ports, most carriers have resumed normal port rotations, signalling a return to schedule reliability on this lane.
Adverse weather and mounting congestion at Australian ports have led some carriers to skip planned port calls to preserve global schedule integrity. Adding to the uncertainty, labour negotiations at Patrick and Hutchison terminals are set to begin later this year, with strike activity widely anticipated—posing additional risks to port operations across the country.
Transshipment services into Oceania via Asia remain under pressure as congestion persists at major regional hubs. These delays are adding complexity to routeing and increasing risk for time-sensitive cargo.
Shippers should prepare for potential ripple effects through the third quarter, monitor labour developments closely and consider diversifying port pairings where feasible to mitigate risk.
Canada
Canadian port operations have generally improved, but a mix of early wildfires, unresolved labour issues and seasonal shifts will demand close attention.
While congestion has eased across major gateways such as Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Halifax, the recent Victoria Day long weekend led to residual delays. Shippers should expect moderate backlogues to carry into early June as terminals work through accumulated volume.
Rail performance to and from the ports is stable, though expedited rail service remains limited. Expedited service from Vancouver is accessible if needed, but Prince Rupert continues to operate on a first-come, first-served basis. Shippers relying on this corridor should plan further in advance.
The 2025 wildfire season is already active. The first incident of the year occurred near Winnipeg in mid-May, prompting a short-term Canadian National service suspension. Although service was quickly restored, the early start to wildfire activity signals heightened risk through June and beyond. Shippers moving inland freight should anticipate possible service disruptions as fire-prone regions heat up, especially in western Canada.
Labour negotiations remain a critical factor in supply chain planning. The long-running contract dispute at the Port of Montreal has entered binding arbitration following the collapse of mediation. While strike activity is legally blocked during arbitration, a resolution may take several months.
In the rail sector, both Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have reached tentative four-year agreements with their respective unions: the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and Unifor. These agreements helped avert strikes that were originally scheduled for late January. While terms have not yet been released and remain subject to ratification, they signal short-term labour stability across two of Canada’s most critical rail networks.
Canadian National finalised a separate three-year contract with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference through binding arbitration. This agreement is now in effect through 31 December 2026, offering further predictability for rail operations in the near term.
On the regulatory front, spring thaw load restrictions have now been lifted across all three zones, including Zone 3, which reopened in late May—three weeks ahead of the original forecast. This easing of weight restrictions should support more fluid truck movement heading into summer, particularly for forestry and industrial sectors.
Shippers should take advantage of improved port flow and earlier-than-expected thaw relief, while also preparing for localised rail and inland disruptions tied to wildfire season and lingering labour-related slowdowns. Booking lead times should remain extended—particularly for Prince Rupert-bound freight—and contingency plans should remain in place for assets moving through eastern Canada and wildfire-exposed corridors.
Mexico
The Port of Manzanillo, Mexico's busiest Pacific port, experienced significant disruptions and delays due to labour protests and operational challenges mid-May. Although the blockade ended early on 16 May, port operations remained hindered due to a shortage of customs personnel, leading to continued delays in cargo processing at customs clearance points.
These disruptions had a substantial impact on drayage carriers, since over 4,000 transport units typically access the port daily. Carriers have also struggled with inactive equipment and missed deliveries.
South Asia, Middle East, Africa
Export markets remain active across Southeast Asia and India, fuelled by shifting global sourcing strategies. However, geopolitical tensions between Pakistan and India are prompting significant routeing changes. Vessels departing Pakistan are bypassing Indian ports entirely, instead calling at transshipment hubs such as Sri Lanka and Jebel Ali to maintain schedule integrity.
Blank sailings are causing space constraints—especially from Nhava Sheva and Mundra to the USEC. These operational shifts are compounding schedule disruptions and tightening capacity for regional exporters and forwarders, adding pressure across South Asia’s key trade corridors.
Shippers should plan for extended lead times and consider booking well in advance to navigate these evolving constraints.
Security threats in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden continue to force carriers to reroute away from the Suez Canal, extending transit times and adding operational complexity. Resuming passage through the region remains unlikely in the near term for most carriers. Wide resumption of routeing through the canal depends on clear and sustained improvements in regional security. Until then, expect continued reliance on diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, higher fuel costs and schedule unpredictability.
South America
LATAM
Port congestion across Central America is disrupting delivery routes that connect West Coast South America with North American markets. Vessels travelling north from Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia are facing significant delays, leading to reduced capacity, longer transit times and elevated freight rates.
Rates out of West Coast South America remain generally stable, despite ongoing space challenges from Chile, where vessel availability is tight. Meanwhile, rates from Brazil are climbing, driven by strong commodity demand and mounting congestion at key transshipment hubs like Cartagena and Kingston.
In response to widespread delays, major carriers have cut space by up to 50% on affected lanes to stabilise schedules and prevent further service degradation. GRIs and high season surcharges are being implemented to offset rising operational costs tied to inactive time and vessel bunching.
Expect congestion to persist through the coming months, with gradual improvement likely as carriers recalibrate rotations and potentially reintroduce tonnage.
Shippers should:
- Budget for ongoing rate fluctuations.
- Explore alternative routes where possible.
- Book at least three to four weeks in advance.
- Build buffer time into their supply chain plans.
- Maintain close communication with their logistics providers.