Trucking market remains in an elongated state of oversupply
U.S. spot market environment
Capacity forecast
The U.S. trucking market remains in an elongated state of carrier oversupply, keeping trucking capacity for shippers plentiful. If the current pace of carriers leaving the market continues, C.H. Robinson’s projections indicate a return to historical norms by early 2026.
A view of FMCSA carrier authority changes over the past 45 years reflects a market that has weathered numerous shifts and cycles, between under- and over-supply of trucking capacity. Yet, even in times of soft demand, the number of net new carriers has largely trended upward, suggesting that inflationary pressures and macroeconomic growth keep the baseline demand for trucking capacity steadily rising. The COVID pandemic surge in freight disrupted this pattern, with a flood of new carriers aiming to capitalise on historically high spot rates.
Quarterly net changes in FMCSA authorities
This boom overran the usual growth trajectory and pushed the market into a significant state of carrier oversupply—so much so that for the first time on record, there has been a net decline in active carrier authorities for multiple quarters in a row.
This shift doesn't imply that every new COVID-era carrier must exit for the market to return to a balance of carrier supply and demand. Rather, the market is reverting to the historical trendline: a subtle but steady climb in carriers. If the current pace of net carrier exits continues, C.H. Robinson projects a return to “normal” by early 2026. Temporary surges in freight demand (such as produce season) may allow for less carrier attrition, which could extend this timeframe by a few months.
For-hire carrier authorities forecast
It’s important to note that carrier authorities aren’t a perfect measure of trucks or drivers on the road, but they serve as a reliable proxy and have historically correlated with broader market shifts.
Some argue that large events like regulatory overhauls or hurricanes trigger shifts in the freight market cycle and that the market won’t change until one of these events happen. But recent disruptions—including new tariffs, port strikes and labour unrest - haven’t caused a sustained market change. Why? Because these events occurred against a backdrop of overwhelming excess capacity.
The bottom line: Until trucking capacity returns to historical norms or freight demand increases to match carrier supply, the freight market will remain insulated from other potential catalysts. With the demand outlook muted, monitoring the supply side continues to be important.
U.S. spot market forecast: Dry van truckload
The C.H. Robinson 2025 dry van cost-per-mile forecast remains at +4% year over year (y/y). Summer seasonality is in full swing in the month of June, with increased demand for moving produce and beverages increasing spot market prices. This typically abates in the weeks following the 4 July holiday.
U.S. spot market forecast: Refrigerated truckload
The C.H. Robinson 2025 refrigerated van cost-per-mile forecast remains flat y/y. Like dry van, summer seasonality will influence pricing in the short term, particularly as higher temperatures across the country increase demand for temperature-controlled delivery.
Contract truckload environment
Route guide depth is an indicator of how far a shipper needs to go into their backup strategies when awarded transportation providers reject a tender. A route guide depth of 1 would be perfect performance and 2 would be extremely poor. The following insights are derived from C.H. Robinson Managed Solutions™, which serves a large portfolio of customers across diverse industries.
Overall, route guide depth remains relatively flat, continuing at the same historically low level for the past two years. Even as more noticeable seasonality has returned to the market over the past year compared with 2023, route guide depth continues to hold. This is an indicator of a relatively balanced market.
For the month of May, route guide depth across all regions and deliveries was 1.2. The largest week-over-week change occurred during Road Check Week, with route guide depth jumping from 1.17 to 1.19.
From a mileage perspective, 400- to 600-mile deliveries experienced the largest month-over-month change, with the May 2025 reading of 1.23 coming in nearly 5% higher than April and noticeably higher than the months of May 2023 and 2024. For long hauls of more than 600 miles, the May 2025 average was 1.25, which is worse compared to the previous month’s reading of 1.22. Shorter hauls of less than 400 miles remained consistent, with route guide depth at 1.14 for May and the previous month.
North America Route Guide Depth Metrics: Miles
Geographically, the South experienced the largest month-over-month change of all regions, which is to be expected during produce season, worsening by 4.0% from the previous month. Notably, the Northeast continued a three-month trend of worsening route guide performance, increasing to 1.29, the highest reading for that region since March 2023.
U.S. Route Guide Depth Metrics: Regions
Refrigerated Truckload
The refrigerated truckload market has experienced traditional seasonality, albeit muted, through May. While disruptive, these pockets are short lived. As produce moves out of a region, there has been a quick return to the softer market conditions experienced through most of 2025. Pockets of tighter capacity are expected to continue through June.
Tariffs have had less of an impact on the refrigerated truckload market, as a large portion of the seasonal demand surge experienced in May and June is from domestically grown crops. Lead time and “clean load” attributes continue to be the differentiating factor for achieving freight velocity and competitive prices.
East Coast United States
May kicked off the largest floral push of the year from South Florida for Mother's Day, followed quickly by the start of produce season. The produce harvest in the Southeast is in full swing as the growing season and heaviest delivery origins transition from Florida to Georgia.
Floral demand, produce demand, Road Check Week and Memorial Day demand for food and beverages in sequential weeks has led to an extended period of capacity tightness and elevated costs, particularly from the Southeast. Only mild disruptions have been experienced from most Northeast origin points and capacity is readily available.
Central United States
The Midwest temperature controlled market continues to be relatively soft, with capacity available even through the disruptions in May. The outlook for June is more of the same.
Capacity originating from states in the Midsouth felt some tightness during Road Check Week but has otherwise been relatively stable. Loads with short lead time are experiencing increased rates. Produce demand will push through these states in June, ending by the Fourth of July.
West Coast United States
Normal seasonal patterns continue across the western United States. This includes produce from northern California and southern Arizona. Expect this regional pressure to continue through June.
The Pacific Northwest has been quiet, resulting in competitive rates outbound from the region, but slightly elevated rates heading inbound. Commodities like cherries have a two-three week seasonal pull, which will result in better balance for the month of June.
Flatbed truckload
Flatbed capacity began to normalise in late May following a brief period of elevated tension during Road Check Week. While market conditions tightened during that week and the surrounding days, those pressures have since eased.
Overall capacity and rates
Overall, flatbed capacity and rates are aligning with typical seasonal patterns. In April, there was a modest tightening that exceeded standard seasonality. That shift was attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal trends, retail restocking and increased infrastructure repair. There are still specific regions, like the Southeast and Southern California, that are experiencing tightness.
But this is in line with expectations and anticipated to continue through June. Service metrics are still able to be hit, since the tightness is not beyond the standard shifts experienced during this time.
Committee meeting results to potentially impact infrastructure investment
Looking ahead, the industry is closely watching the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for mid-June. A potential decision to lower interest rates, either at this meeting and/or a subsequent one, could stimulate flatbed demand by encouraging investment in infrastructure and construction projects, as lower borrowing costs would reduce the overall expense of those investments.
Hurricane season
1 June marked the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Flatbed demand can be heavily affected by hurricane damage and rebuilding needs. This tends to happen later in the season but is always something to be aware of.
Voice of the carrier
Market conditions
Some carriers have reported that the back-and-forth of tariffs has created some slight bumps in volume, but these have been minimal with the exception of outbound California. Several carriers mentioned a drastic reduction in California outbound freight volumes and expect this to continue into the first half of June.
A handful of carriers have mentioned some other key factors they expect to affect the market in the near-term:
- Inbound freight volumes from China picking back up in July and August
- Enforcement of English language proficiency for drivers
- Upcoming renewals for tags and insurance being challenging costs for some carriers to cover
Many carriers are working to drive efficiencies through technology, such as artificial intelligence and using it to help combat fraud.
Driver hiring and retention
Many carriers have developed and continue to work diligently on programmes to retain good drivers. These programmes include ways to retain drivers beyond pay, including prioritising driver-friendly freight: drop and hook, round trip, local runs and shorter lengths of haul.
Retention levels continue to improve for many carriers. However, if English language proficiency enforcement takes drivers out of the market, a few carriers worry that driver demand will increase.
Equipment demand affected by tariffs
A few carriers mentioned tariff charges added to their equipment purchases. Some said manufacturers gave them a maintenance credit to help offset it, while others stated they had to eat those costs.
Adding net-new equipment has been limited. Some carriers are buying new equipment for replacement purposes now, because they pushed mileage beyond what they normally would. A few carriers commented that delay in equipment purchases resulted in substantial increases to maintenance and repair costs this past quarter.