Ryan: Hello and welcome to our first Robinson Roundup of 2025. Well, we had an adventurous start to the new year, so I'm looking forward to discussing what we're watching in the days and weeks ahead.

Mat: Yeah, agreed and I feel like there's a certain irony in the fact that the main story might actually be the story that wasn't, which is the potential East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes, which thankfully was called off due to a new six-year agreement that was reached just before the current one was set to expire. And while at the moment this has not yet been ratified, typically when an agreement has been reached, it does get through approval status.

Ryan: Yeah, that was very welcome news, especially after the other labour disruptions in 2024 across the US, Canada, even India, but even without that potential disruption, there's plenty of dynamics pushing and pulling on supply chains across the globe right now and that event really had the potential to affect costs, transit time, service levels or even stress levels.

But as we look ahead, let's talk about some of the other key inputs that we're monitoring. The first of which we see immediately affecting ocean imports now that the labour dispute is behind us, is the approaching Lunar New Year, that signifies the slowdown and the shutdown of manufacturing out of Asia for that large holiday.

Mat: Yeah and while this is a well-known event where we understand the impact that it does have on freight, similar to the Suez Canal situation, it's still a key factor for consideration, especially given the timing.

Ryan: Exactly. I mean, you mentioned that it's been a full year now, but we need to  remember that delays related to the Suez Canal diversions do continue, but that's understood by the market and planned for at this point. But the disruption du jour for ocean carriers is the dissolution of carrier alliances. Mat, what can you tell us about the upcoming 2M alliance dissolution and the newly emerging Gemini cooperation? What's ahead for everybody in the wake of that change?

Mat: Yeah, so the dissolution of the 2M alliance will shift some services from that US Eastern Gulf Coast routes, while that new Gemini cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is looking to stabilise the reliability and frequency, specifically on US-Asia, US-Middle East and US-Europe trade lanes. And you know, that's not the only alliance change in in 2025, as you can see here in the slide.

And it's not just a matter of changing team names. Shippers need to pay attention to these changes because first, any time there's a large change like this, there will be some disruption, you know, communication processes likely going to have some interruption and schedules will probably get changed.

But second, the actual services and lanes being offered are also going to be affected. Some of those current service strings, they're likely going to go away and some of the services that do exist today, they may not be offered moving forward. So this is a good time for shippers to re-evaluate that ocean freight strategy. And, your C.H. Robinson account team, they're prepared to help you to evaluate the best service offering that is available for you. So if this is news to you or you just haven't considered these impacts, keep in touch to your team today for that discussion.

Ryan: Well, before we jump over to tariffs and the domestic truckload market, I want to quickly go back to the topic of ports. A key point in the negotiations related to the labour agreement was port automation. And while details about what exactly was meant by their statement that says the new agreement establishes a framework for implementing technologies, one that will create more jobs while modernising the ports, it was clear that future efficiency of the ports was a critical topic during this time.

But beyond technology and automation, the ports are also at work finding other ways to modernise and improve their operations. As you can see here, there are many scheduled port infrastructure enhancements on the docket for this year in the US. The one that really leaps out is the massive $150 million commitment to enhance the port of Savannah, but there's plenty more from coast to coast and even up in Montreal.

Mat: Yeah, there definitely are and these projects, whether it's, you know, re-dredging a river or port bottoms or making upgrades to gantry cranes or even just resurfacing roads to handle higher cargo capacities, all of these do have positive impacts to what can come in and where and you know, we want to talk to make sure that you have the information and to factor into your decision making on these things.

So, some people watching this may be  taking a screenshot of the visual, which is fine, but I just want to let you know that this list is available in our January Robinson report on our website. So now when you consider the Ocean Alliance and tariff-driven supplier network changes, understanding the throughput and efficiency of your port of choice is going to be an important factor in your decision. So, that said, you want to go ahead and dig into those proposed tariff increases, Ryan?

Ryan: Sure, we might as well. It seems to be the big topic on everybody's mind with inauguration this week. Much of the marketplace is waiting to see what will happen. It's a very dynamic situation. It's hard for everyone to understand what to do until final details are announced and in effect and likely some of these will be rolling out over time. But we want to start out by saying the C.H. Robinson team is here to help you.

Whether it's scenario planning, finding alternative sourcing locations, running total landed cost analysis or maybe in a full supply chain engineering project, we've got the resources to help you navigate this dynamic situation. Also, we want to let you know about an upcoming C.H. Robinson webinar on Tuesday, February 11th, where I will be talking with our director of customs and compliance and we'll go deeper on the topic of tariffs, trade policy and answering your questions.

Mat: Yeah, we also talked quite a bit in our January freight market report about these proposed tariffs. So between this month's report and that webinar that you mentioned, Ryan, in February, we probably don't need to go too deep into the topic today, but we do want to provide an informational chart that just reminds everyone that there are multiple types of tariffs and policies that are available at the president's disposal. So each of these has a process that obviously must be followed and requirements that must be met, but generally speaking, these are the options available.

Now, looking specifically at section 122, this has the potential to be utilised to impose country-specific tariffs for 150 days. Now, it does not require congressional approval, so that means it's able to be implemented very quickly. Now, to be fair, historically, Section 122 hasn't been used in a capacity to enforce tariffs for a short period of time, but it's definitely something to keep in mind.

Ryan: Yeah, absolutely. That's just one of the multiple parts that we're watching. There are other trade mechanisms such as sections 232 and 301, which are currently in effect, but could be updated to prioritise the agendas of the incoming administration. Those changes do take time, so it could be as early as March of this year before those could be in effect. And also in the mix of trade policy, we have section 338. International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which a lot of people call IEEPA and is maybe one that we should be paying attention to.

And we've also got the USMCA that we'll need to watch. So any or all of these may be subject to utilisation to enforce tariffs as a lever for call it de-risking trade relations along the lines of certain commodities in the coming years. So after all of that, Mat, what should we be thinking about? What's the so what here? Do we just sit back and wait for all of this to come to us?

Mat: So I would say that there's two main things. First, keep in mind that there's a lot of detail and nuance and possibilities that are available here. So this is why listeners should talk with an expert at C.H. Robinson about their trade strategies, you know, not only to make# sure that that they're prepared to, you know, maximise trade efficiency and their spend, but also just to ensure that they're compliant every step of the way.

And then second, I would remind people that change is constant and change rewards those who are proactive and then react quickly. So in this case, that means mitigating risks and maximising profits. So we will continue to release updates and advisories to ensure that you have all the information that you need to make decisions.

Ryan: Well said, Mat. So as we wrap up, I also want to briefly shift over to the domestic market with a quick update on truckload. Mat, we came right out of the holiday season in bad weather. We had the freezing temps, winter storms and wildfires out in California. We did see the expected seasonal tightening of the truckload market, but, but that's extended into January because of these disruptions. Something you and I look at often and update each month in our report is our route guide depth metrics. And for the first time in a long time, we actually saw it move up. What does that actually tell us?

Mat: Yeah, it does tell us that things did get tighter in the market. And and you're right, it was in that December holiday tightness and it moved into January. But the thing to keep in mind is that it's primarily due to that seasonal tightness throughout that holiday period. And then it's also good to keep in mind that despite the increase in the route guide depth, it's not a huge increase and the route guides are broadly holding out too. They aren't failing and, going into the spot market as much as you would think.

So we went and take a look at a little sneak peek into January's numbers and we have seen those route guide figures while they are staying elevated due to those winter storms, they're showing signs of improvement, albeit at slower pace, but that's just due to the disruptions from the weather. So with many of the different things that we discussed today on the horizon, it's probably a little too early to determine if there's going to be further improvement to close out January and then into February, but that's currently the trajectory that we're heading at today. 

Ryan: Yeah, great point. Well, there's a lot of diverse topics that we covered this month. The sure thing is that nothing stands still. So the world and supply chains, they're constantly moving and that's why we appreciate your interest and attention and we also encourage you to continue the conversation with us.

So that we can discuss how C.H. Robinson can free you up to do what you do best, which is manufacturing your goods and products and servicing your customers. So, C.H. Robinson is here to help you with every delivery and every challenge related to trade, compliance and meeting your customers' needs. Check out the Robinson report on our website for more details.